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2006-12-14 00:00:00 |
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Global cereal production to come down
The reduction in world cereal production forecast since the previous report in July results mainly from downward revisions to the forecasts for wheat, and a slight reduction for rice, which more than offset an increase for coarse grains.
FAO has revised downwards its forecast for global paddy production in 2006 by 2 million tonne to 635 million tonne (424 million tonne in milled terms), which would be just marginally up from 2005.
The 2006 global wheat output forecast has been reduced by 19 million tonne since July, and now stands at 596.3 million tonne, 4.6% below last year's good level, but still above the average of the past five years.
"Exceptionally hot and dry weather is adversely affecting the wheat crops in Australia, Argentina and Brazil, while drier-than-normal weather in parts of South Asia is also raising some concern for the second 2006 paddy crop," FAO said in its crop prospects and food situation report.
Summer drought in several European countries sharply diminished wheat yields, while hot and dry conditions are adversely affecting prospects for the crops still to be harvested in the main southern hemisphere producers -- Australia, Argentina and Brazil.
By contrast, FAO's forecast for global coarse grains production has been increased slightly since the last report to 992.3 million tonne, which would bring output almost to the level now estimated for last year.
The outlook for the harvests currently underway or to start in the coming weeks in many northern hemisphere countries, has improved significantly since July.
This has more than offset a reduced outcome in Europe, where the crop is largely gathered, and deteriorating prospects in Australia and South America.
Regarding rice, at this time of the year, all the main 2006 paddy crops have been planted, and some are harvested along and south of the equatorial line. The paddy crops in the temperate climatic zones in the northern hemisphere are also mostly gathered. As the season is progressing, particular attention should be paid to the rainfall pattern in South Asia, where the monsoon should start receding in September/October.
For many countries, those rains constitute the main source of water supplies for growing the second, irrigated, paddy crops that will be sown over the last quarter of the year. Over that period, southern hemisphere countries will also be planting their first 2007 paddy crops.
Consequently, a recent warning by various institutions monitoring climatic conditions of a likely strengthening of an El Nino event in the last quarter of 2006 and early 2007 has become a matter for concern. The weather was associated with drier-than-average conditions in August in Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the Philippines.
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Crude oil futures continued to trade down in mid London trade Friday as the US dollar strengthened against the major currencies apart from a dip in the global equities. |
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Gold futures fell in negative zone as dollar gathered some strength in mid London trades. Dollar typically strengthens when there are less data releases from US. |
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MCX Comdex was up by 2.35% to 2694.17. MCX Energy was down by 0.22% to 2651.55, MCX Metal was up by 3.70% to 3226.02 and MCX Agri was up by 4.84% to 2255.10. |
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| Technical Calls |
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Dollar investors bring down gold, silver prices |
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Gold slipped again for Dollar investors early in London on Friday, nearing the weekend 1.7% above last week's finish as commodities fell, government bonds rose, and world stock markets dropped. Gold priced in the British Pound Sterling hit a new all- |
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High gold price threatens Indian marriage culture |
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Gold’s auspicious significance within Indian culture will continue to ensure it plays an important role in weddings there, even as India modernizes. But the threat is that the gold price has become much more driven by speculative investment in the pa |
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Gold, silver traders book profit as prices fall |
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Against this changing set of background conditions, New York spot gold bullion opened with an $8 loss, quoted at $1136.70 per ounce. Trade talk indicates a possible dip to the $1100 area prior to a possible renewed assault on the other side of the $1 |
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