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| You are here :Home >> Fiber News >> Report | |||||||||
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| 2006-12-14 00:00:00 | |||||||||
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Global cereal production to come down NEW DELHI (Commodity Online) -- The food and agriculture organisation (FAO) has cut its previous forecast for 2006 world cereal production by 8 million tonne to 2,013 million tonne on hot, dry weather. The new forecast is 1.6% less than the 2005 output.The reduction in world cereal production forecast since the previous report in July results mainly from downward revisions to the forecasts for wheat, and a slight reduction for rice, which more than offset an increase for coarse grains. FAO has revised downwards its forecast for global paddy production in 2006 by 2 million tonne to 635 million tonne (424 million tonne in milled terms), which would be just marginally up from 2005. The 2006 global wheat output forecast has been reduced by 19 million tonne since July, and now stands at 596.3 million tonne, 4.6% below last year's good level, but still above the average of the past five years. "Exceptionally hot and dry weather is adversely affecting the wheat crops in Australia, Argentina and Brazil, while drier-than-normal weather in parts of South Asia is also raising some concern for the second 2006 paddy crop," FAO said in its crop prospects and food situation report. Summer drought in several European countries sharply diminished wheat yields, while hot and dry conditions are adversely affecting prospects for the crops still to be harvested in the main southern hemisphere producers -- Australia, Argentina and Brazil. By contrast, FAO's forecast for global coarse grains production has been increased slightly since the last report to 992.3 million tonne, which would bring output almost to the level now estimated for last year. The outlook for the harvests currently underway or to start in the coming weeks in many northern hemisphere countries, has improved significantly since July. This has more than offset a reduced outcome in Europe, where the crop is largely gathered, and deteriorating prospects in Australia and South America. Regarding rice, at this time of the year, all the main 2006 paddy crops have been planted, and some are harvested along and south of the equatorial line. The paddy crops in the temperate climatic zones in the northern hemisphere are also mostly gathered. As the season is progressing, particular attention should be paid to the rainfall pattern in South Asia, where the monsoon should start receding in September/October. For many countries, those rains constitute the main source of water supplies for growing the second, irrigated, paddy crops that will be sown over the last quarter of the year. Over that period, southern hemisphere countries will also be planting their first 2007 paddy crops. Consequently, a recent warning by various institutions monitoring climatic conditions of a likely strengthening of an El Nino event in the last quarter of 2006 and early 2007 has become a matter for concern. The weather was associated with drier-than-average conditions in August in Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the Philippines. |
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