Arrival have been rising at major guar spot markets in the country limiting further up-tick in the prices. Market analyst expect India's guar seed production to be around 2.5 mn-2.7 mn tons in 2013, up from around 2.2 million tons a year earlier.
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India is the main producer of guar in the world. Main producing states of guarseed are Rajasthan and Haryana. Gujarat, Punjab, UP and MP are also producer states but the production is low in these states. The sowing for guar is done at the onset of monsoon during June-August and harvesting is done between Sept-Nov.
Other producing countries
Pakistan is also a major producer of guarseed. If weather remains conducive for crop, it produces nearly 13 lakh bags (1 bag=100kg). Last year, around 11 lakh bags guarseed was produced here and this year, production may touch the level of 10 lakh bags there. Here, plants are working in collaboration with overseas traders. It is the main competitor for India. A better exchange rate of Dollar vs Pakistani currency makes its product more competitive in the International markets.
Sudan also produces Guarseed and a plant is also there which is controlled by the Govt but it is not working. There, around 2 lakh bags guarseed is produced which is purchased by cattle feed industry of South Africa.
Guar gum is the main product produced from guar apart from Churi and Korma. Nearly 75% of Gum is exported. Gum is mainly used in drilling purpose and it is also used in making Ice cream, bread, paste, powder etc. Last year, around 2.10 lakh tons gum was exported from India while this year export figure is expected to increase to 2.25 lakh tons. Domestic consumption is nearly 50000 ton per year. For export and domestic consumption, nearly 90 lakh bags are required per year. Overseas demand for Churi and Korma is reportedly good this year. Churi and Korma are used for animal feed purpose.
Production of guarseed in Rajasthan, the main producing area is expected to be nearly 70 lakh bags this year. In Shri Ganganagar and Hanumangarh districts, total production of guar is expected to be nearly 23-25 lakh bags based on the latest sowing figures from traders. If rains occur there in the coming days, production may increase. In Bikaner, around 3 lakh bags production is expected. Though sowing has increased in Churu district, but in Nagaur, Pali and Sirohi, sowing level has fallen as farmers are taking interest in production of castor seed and Moong instead of guarseed in the wake of better price realizations of these products. Sowing is reportedly same in Jodhpur while sowing has increased in Barhmer and Jaisalmer. Moreover, reports indicate no change in sowing levels in Alwar, Bhartpur, Jaipur, Sikar, Ajmer, Chittorgarh and Udaipur districts.
Though production is expected at ~70 lakh bags in Rajasthan, but sowing work started late owing to late arrival of monsoon. Again, more rains are needed in the growing areas. First spell of rains was satisfactory but another spell of rains is needed. If rains do not occur in next few days, colour of the crop would start to fade. News related to colour deterioration is already there from some places. If this turns out to be true, size of guar plant would reduced, which may cause the production to fall to ~50 lakh bags from the current estimates of 70 lakh bags.
Haryana is the second largest producer state of guarseed where ~30 lakh bags guar is produced. Though timely arrival of monsoon paved the way for satisfactory sowing, but excess rains and floods last month damaged the crop to some extent. Here also, rains are needed within next 1 week in producing areas - otherwise production may reduce by 5-7 lakh bags.
Sowing has not been done in many places of Gujarat due to late arrival of monsoon which have resulted in low sowing figures. Moreover, farmers took interest in sowing of other commodities like castor seed instead of guar as they are fetching better price. At present, Castor seed is fetching Rs 3000/Q while guar seed which is available at Rs 1400/Q. Rains are needed here also. If rains do not occur here within next few days, production is apprehended to reduce to below 2 lakh bags.
Other producing states
Sowing in Punjab is done in Abohar and Firozpur. Flood and excess rains have resulted in reduced production below 1.50 lakh bags whereas earlier, it was expected to remain near 2 lakh bags. Production in MP and AP is expected to remain at around 2 lakh bags.
Earlier, there had been expectations of increased production of more than 1 Crore bags. Increased area of sowing and good and timely rains in some growing areas had been the main factors. However, delayed rains in some areas and excess rains and floods in places like Gujarat have now reduced the hope for good production. As of now, production is expected to be less than 1cr bags.
Moreover, crop is facing disease related problem and the only remedy is occurrence of rains over Rajasthan, Haryana and Gujarat soon. As per traders, if it rains within next few days, production may touch the level of nearly 1 crore bags. Otherwise, it may fall to less than 70 lakh bags. There are expectations of rains in the coming days – as per different weather forecasts. The short term and medium term trend for guarseed price would depend totally on the production factor – which in turn would depend on the rains.