Ind-Ra estimates Index of Industrial Production (IIP) growth for December 2015 at 0.8% and January 2016 Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation at 5.6% and -0.1% respectively.
As per the latest USDA report, world RMseed production for 2008-09 is expected to remain near 52.12 MMT which is higher from the previous year. USDA pegs Indian RMseed production to remain near 5.8 MMT for 2008-09. RMseed sowing in India will start from the month of October and the area under this crop will largely decide the future direction of RMseed market.
Thus though the Indian market fundamentals remain moderately bullish, a general weakness seen in most agri commodities amidst fears of the Indian and the world economy not doing well, this may well have an adverse impact on the demand scenario in the medium term. These factors could have an impact on the price movements for this commodity from a medium term point of view.
The main RMSeed producing states are Rajasthan, UP, MP, Gujarat, West Bengal, Punjab and Haryana. Rajasthan
Rajasthan is a major producing state for RMSeed. During 2006-07, around 29 lakh ton was produced here while in 2007-08, production figure fell by 6.50 lakh ton to 22.50 lakh ton as famers did not take interest in its sowing due to not getting remunerative price for their produce during the last few years. Kota division produces good quality RMSeed where nearly 42 kg oil is extracted from 1 quintal produce. On the other hand, the general extraction rate is about 38 kg from 1 quintal RMSeed.
Though RMSeed is produced in nearly whole of Rajasthan, but Kota, Baran, Gangapur, Savai Madhopur, Jaipur, Alwar, Bharatpur, Sikar, Churu, Jhoonjhunu, Hanumangarh and Shri Ganga Nagar are the main producing districts. Sowing starts in South-East areas during October to November while arrival starts from mid February to April. Usually, arrival continues the entire year.
During 2006-07, around 6.70 lakh ton RMSeed was produced in UP, while in 2007-08, production recorded around 7.70 lakh bags. The main producing areas are Agra, Hathras, Etah, Etawah Mainpuri, Hapur, Bulandshehar etc. Here, sowing process starts during November while arrival starts in March.
MP and Chhattisgarh
Both in MP and Chhattisgarh, around 6.50 lakh ton RMSeed was produced during 2006-07 which in 2007-08 fell to 5.30 lakh ton. Muraina, Shivpur, Gwalior are the main producing areas in MP. Here, sowing starts during October while arrival starts from February.
Haryana and Punjab
Combined production of the 2 states is around 7 lakh ton in 2006-07 while during 2007-08, production reduced to ~5 lakh ton. Palwal, Gurgaon, Rewari, Mahendragarh, Bhiwani, Hissar, Fatehabad and Sirsa are the main producing areas of Haryana. In Punjab, Abohar, Fazilka and Bhatinda are the main producing areas. Of both states, Haryana produces around 80% while Punjab contributes only 20% of the total output. Sowing time in both states starts during December while arrival starts from March.
During 2006-07, around 4.50 lakh ton RMSeed was produced here while in 2007-08, production recorded around 4.20 lakh ton. Kutch and northern Gujarat are the main production areas. Gujarat’s RMSeed is called Rayada which has low contents of oil.
During 2006-07, around 2.50 lakh ton RMSeed was produced while in 2007-08, production reduced by 10000 ton to 2.40 lakh ton. Mostly yellowish RMSeed is produced here. Sowing is done in the place of Kaliaganj, Raiganj and Malda - spreading from Kolkata to Siliguri.
Other producing states
Assam, Bihar, Orissa, AP, Karnataka and HP are also counted in other producing areas. Total contribution of these states in RMSeed production remained in 2007 nearly 4 lakh ton while in 2007-08, production is expected to remain around 3.70 lakh ton. Sowing starts in December and arrival starts in March in these states.