Nickel and Aluminium trading ideas for May 22

Nickel trading range for the day is 917.17-955. Market is looking to take support at 929.3, a break below could see a test of 917.1 and resistance is likely to be seen at 948.3, a move above could see prices testing 955.1. In yesterday's trading session Nickel has touched the low of 924 after opening at 924, and finally settled at 941.5.

Nickel was the second best performing commodity yesterday in the base metals group on the back of decline in LME Nickel inventories by 0.1 percent and stood at 106,122 tonnes. Additionally, weakness in dollar index also helped upside in prices of the commodity. LME Nickel prices touched an intraday high of $17,185/tonne and closed at $17,170/tonne in yesterday’s trading session. On the MCX, prices gained by 2.2 percent as depreciation in Indian Rupee further supported the prices and closed at Rs.941.50/kg on Monday.

Aluminium trading range for the day is 109.83-111.93. Market is looking to take support at 110.3, a break below could see a test of 109.8 and resistance is likely to be seen at 111.3, a move above could see prices testing 111.9. Aluminium has touched the low of 110.45 after opening at 111.35, and finally settled at 110.7.

Aluminium yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -0.27% down at 110.7 got resistance technically at 111.00 level.

With inputs from Kedia Commodities and Angel Commodities.

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Gold, Silver treads in negative territory, movement expected late evening

Gold trading range for the day is 28837-29273. Technically market is trading in the range as RSI for 18 days is currently indicating 57.44, where as 50 DMA is at 28653 and Gold is trading above the same and getting support at 28936 and below could see a test of 28837 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 29154, a move above could see prices testing 29273.

Gold traded in the range as investors await a EU summit that is expected to discuss fresh action to solve the region's debt crisis that has been threatening global growth.

COMEX Gold could not break $1600 indicating the return of $1570 and 28800 for MCX Gold. COMEX Silver could not break $29 and rested around $28 indicating $26.80 to comeback with MCX Silver indicating 53500 level. For the day coming by expecting bullion desk to witness profit booking due to higher prices and strong dollar report by Edelweiss Comtrade.

Gold prices treaded water, as market focus is accentuated on the ongoing G8 summit, wherein France is expected to propagate regarding mutualized European debt, the school of thought which Germany has vehemently opposed.

According to Angel Commodities With upbeat global market sentiments and dollar weakness, Gold is expected to receive support, but not expecting sharp increase in prices on account of long term uncertainty associated with the European crisis. Silver too is expected to trade with a positive bias but sharp gains are not seen.

Silver trading range for the day is 53327-55207. Technically market is trading in the range as RSI for 18 days is currently indicating 40.7, where as 50 DMA is at 56852 and Silver is trading below the same and getting support at 53728 and below could see a test of 53327 level, And resistance is likely to be seen at 54668, a move above could see prices testing 55207.

Silver tumbled by -0.82% to settled at 54130 easing off a seven day high as the euro came under pressure amid ongoing concerns over a deepening debt crisis in the euro zone.

With inputs from Kedia Commodities, India Infoline and Angel Commodities.

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Spices and Chana trading ideas for the day

Pepper trading range for the day is 37187-38707. Now support for the pepper is seen at 37643 and below could see a test of 37187. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 38403, a move above could see prices testing 38707.

New crop would be further lower due to shrinking acreage, declining productivity in general, and particularly during this season due to changing rain pattern during the spike setting stage.

Pepper May delivery gained Rs 290 and settled at Rs 38100/quintal on some lower buying support though upside was limited on sluggish exports as higher prices of Indian origin pepper in the international market dampened demand.

Turmeric trading range for the day is 3483-3703. Support for turmeric is at 3553 below that could see a test of 3483. Resistance is now seen at 3663 above that could see a resistance of 3703.

Traders expect short term trend to remain volatile but any rise in demand could perk up prices that had fallen significantly over last few months due to high arrivals in the mandis. Holding of stocks by Stockists however could support the rates in coming weeks and expectations of exports picking up in coming weeks too could support prices.

In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 3309.5 rupees dropped by -35.75 rupees. Market has opened at 3562 & made a low of 3524 versus the day high of 3634. The total volume for the day was at 11750 lots and the open interest was at 31445.

Jeera trading range for the day is 11909-12429. Support for jeera is at 12028 below that could see a test of 11909. Resistance is now seen at 12288 above that could see a resistance of 12429.

Reports of an expected higher production could however prevent rates from rising a lot in short term. Latest sowing data from Gujarat indicates as on 27th Dec, sowing completed in ~2.82 lakh ha vs 2.38 lakh ha last year.

Latest report from Spice Board of India indicates Spices exports for April 2011-Jan 2012 have risen by 1% from 432115 MT in 2010-11 to 436175 MT in 2011-12.

Chana  trading range for the day is 3630-3718. Support for chana is at 3652 below that could see a test of 3630. Resistance is now seen at 3696 above that could see a resistance of 3718.

A rise in imports to 3-3.5 MT expected could support prices in medium term. A weaker Re could make imports costly. Expected fall in production in Chana and overall Pulses was reported as per 3rd Advanced Estimates. Pulses output is expected to fall to 17.02 mln tonnes vs 18.24 mln tonnes in 2010-11.

Chana settled flat on increased supplies from the new season crop and as most traders stayed away from the market fearing stringent government action to curb rising food prices. Lower production prospects for Pulses could support prices in medium to long term. As per reports from India Pulses and Grains Association, Pulses output is likely to fall to 17.5 MT vs 18.2 MT last year.

Courtesy : Kedia Commodities

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NCDEX Chana under pressure on ample supply

Chana dropped Rs 33 and settled at Rs 3675 per quintal as new crop supplies pulled prices lower but the decline was limited as other pulses climbed due to an overall decline in output. Impositions of additional margins on the Buy side have been pressurizing the market sentiments in the short term even as long term remained firm on lower production estimates for Pulses.

New crop arrivals have also added to the selling pressure in the short term. Lower production prospects for Pulses could support prices in medium to long term. As per reports from India Pulses and Grains Association, Pulses output is likely to fall to 17.5 MT vs 18.2 MT last year.

A rise in imports to 3-3.5 MT expected could support prices in medium term. A weaker Re could make imports costly. Expected fall in production in Chana and overall Pulses was reported as per 2nd Advanced Estimates. Pulses output is expected to fall by 5.26% to 17.29 mln tonnes vs 18.24 mln tonnes in 2010-11.

As per Rajasthan farm department’s first advance estimates for Rabi crops, Chana output is estimated down 7.8% at 14.76 lakh tonnes in 2011-12 season vs 16 lakh tonnes in 2010-11. The total daily arrivals of chana were hovering at the levels of around 1.80 lakh bags in the entire major mandis against 1.10 lakh bags on last day.

In Delhi spot market, chana jump up by 2.3 rupee to end at 3579.15 rupee per 100 kgs.. The volume was noted at 101960 lots. Support for chana is at 3649 below that could see a test of 3624. Resistance is now seen at 3712 above that could see a resistance of 3750.

Trading Ideas:

Chana  trading range for the day is 3624-3750.

Chana ended lower as new crop supplies pulled prices lower but the decline was limited as other pulses climbed

Impositions of additional margins on the Buy side have been pressurizing the market sentiments in the short term

NCDEX accredited warehouses chana stocks gained by 2805 tonnes to 38486 tonnes.

In Delhi spot market, chana jump up by 2.3 rupee to end at 3579.15 rupee per 100 kgs.

Courtesy: Kedia Commodities

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Crude gains momentum, signalling an economic recovery

Crude trading range for the day is 4961-5055. Technically market is in oversold as RSI for 18 days is currently indicating 26.91, where as 50 DMA is at 5345.34 and Crude is trading below the same and getting support at 4983 and below could see a test of 4961 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 5030, a move above could see prices testing 5055.

On a weekly basis, Nymex Crude oil was the second worst performer and prices declined by 4.7 percent, taking cues from more than expected rise in US Crude oil inventories, completion of reversal seaway pipeline and ease in Iran nuclear program. Additionally, a stronger dollar index coupled with worsening European debt crisis also acted as a negative factor for the Crude oil prices.

Crude oil prices are expected to trade on a positive note, taking cues from positive global market sentiments. With global leaders confirming the presence of Greece in the Euro Zone, market sentiments are expected to be upbeat.

Natural Gas trading range for the day is 145.9-153.9. Market is looking to take support at 148.3, a break below could see a test of 145.9 and resistance is now likely to be seen at 152.3, a move above could see prices testing 153.9. In yesterday's trading session Natural gas has touched the low of 147.5 after opening at 147.5, and finally settled at 150.7.

Nymex Natural gas prices gained by a whopping 9.3 percent during the last week on the back of producers cut the production which lead to slow output and demand for the gas has increased as power generation is finding gas as a cheaper source from the coal which is expensive.

With inputs from Kedia Commodities and Angel Commodities.

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Zinc and Nickel on a high at MCX

Zinc trading range for the day is 102.08-105.18. Market is looking to take support at 102.7, a break below could see a test of 102.1 and resistance is now likely to be seen at 104.2, a move above could see prices testing 105.2.

Zinc Study Group stated that the global Zinc market was in surplus by 97,000 tons in the first three months of 2012.

LME Zinc prices declined by 2 percent on account of rise in the metal inventories on the LME warehouses on Wednesday. Zinc inventories increased sharply around 1.1 percent and stood at 942,075 tonnes yesterday. The metal prices touched an intraday low of $ 1889/tonne and closed at $ 1889.30/tonne on Wednesday. On the MCX, prices declined by 0.8 percent and closed at Rs.103.30/kg after touching an intraday low of Rs.103.10/kg yesterday.

Nickel trading range for the day is 903.37-946. Market is looking to take support at 913.5, a break below could see a test of 903.3 and resistance is now likely to be seen at 934.9, a move above could see prices testing 946.1. In yesterday's trading session Nickel has touched the low of 914.6 after opening at 920.5, and finally settled at 923.7.

Nickel yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 0.28% up at 923.7 tracking LME Nickel prices overnight opened at $17,000/mt, with the high end $17,230/mt, finding support at $16,770/mt.

With inputs from Angel Commodities, India Infoline and Kedia Commodities

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NCDEX Turmeric to trade down on higher stocks

Turmeric yesterday we have seen that market has moved -2.6% on lackluster demand from exporters who awaited a further drop in prices due to high supplies.

Turmeric showed a moderate recovery as most Spices started showing a firm trend with rates having fallen to very low levels. Demand has reportedly started picking up slowly at these lower levels and slight firmness was noted in the Spot rates also. Good arrivals and higher crop prospect however have been pressurizing prices.

Traders expect short term trend to remain volatile but any rise in demand could perk up prices that had fallen significantly over last few months due to high arrivals in the mandis. Holding of stocks by Stockists however could support the rates in coming weeks and expectations of exports picking up in coming weeks too could support prices.

Higher production prospects and better stocks could however keep pressure on prices as markets trade with high volatility. The total production this year is expected to touch 75-85 lakh bags - higher than the 65-70 lakh bags in 2010-11. Higher acreage from the high rates is stated the reason for the rise in expected production as per traders.

In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 3345.25 rupees gained by 24.35 rupees. Market has opened at 3716 & made a low of 3558 versus the day high of 3746.

The total volume for the day was at 14850 lots and the open interest was at 31545.Support for turmeric is at 3517 below that could see a test of 3443. Resistance is now seen at 3705 above that could see a resistance of 3819.

Trading Ideas:

Turmeric trading range for the day is 3443-3819.

Turmeric dropped on lackluster demand from exporters who awaited a further drop in prices due to high supplies

Demand has reportedly started picking up slowly at these lower levels and slight firmness was noted in spot rates

NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks gained by 19 tonnes to 4963 tonnes.

In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 3345.25 rupees gained by 24.35 rupees.
 
Courtesy: Kedia Commodities

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India Silver under pressure on poor safe haven demand

Silver dropped almost -1.74% to settled at 55553 after poor eurozone data weighed on the euro, although volumes remained thin. The decline was driven by poor performances in Germany and France, with manufacturing  activity in Germany slowing to the lowest level in almost three years.

The weak data fuelled fears economic growth in the region will be hit by planned government austerity measures. Sentiment also weakened amid fresh concerns over political uncertainty in the euro zone, as investors mulled the implications of the collapse of the Dutch govt following failed budget negotiations and outcome of the first round of the French election.

There have been renewed concerns of further debt contagion in the euro zone in recent weeks amid fears Spain will be the next in the euro zone to require a bailout. Although gold’s appeal as a safe haven is boosted during times of economic uncertainty, the euro zone’s debt crisis has done little to bolster appetite for the precious metal in recent months.

In India, demand remains soft ahead of Akshaya Tritiya most important festival for the buying of gold. Now technically market is trading in the range as RSI for 18days is currently indicating 41.8, where as 50DMA is at 57554 and silver is trading below the same and getting support at 55096 and below could see a test of 54638 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 56218, a move above could see prices testing 56882.

Trading Ideas:

Silver trading range for the day is 54638-56882.

Silver dropped after poor eurozone data weighed on the euro

The decline was driven by poor performances in Germany and France, with manufacturing activity in Germany slowing

There have been renewed concerns of further debt contagion in the euro zone in recent weeks

Courtesy: Kedia Commodities

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India cardamom to drop on profit booking

Jeera futures (Apr) is likely to remain below 12265 levels. Average daily arrivals in Unjha, a key market in the western state of Gujarat, are around 28,000-32,000 bags of 60 kg each.

In the spot market in Unjha, jeera fell 67.5 rupees to 12,412.5 rupees per 100 kg. Turmeric futures may continue to remain in bearish zone owing to selling pressure at the spot markets.

As spot markets will be closed for a week from April 2 for Mariamman festival, farmers decided to sell even at the lower prices.

Cardamom futures (Apr) may continue to move downside owing to profit booking from higher levels & lesser demand at high prices.

Moreover, the money requirement before the financial year closing is said to be one of the reasons for the increased arrivals.

Pepper futures may trade sideways & consolidate taking support above 40000 levels. On international platform, Brazil is not in the sale mood and Vietnam apparently holding stock and releasing slowly.

Courtesy: SMC Global

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