By Sam Nair
The weekly outlook for Turmeric expected to remain negative next week. Turmeric has been consolidating above support at Rs.6500/quintal and is trading below our key support level at Rs.6550/quintal.
A daily close below this support should confirm the bearish trend in prices and we expect prices to decline to Rs.6200-Rs.6000/quintal in the coming week.
On the upside, reversal is expected only if prices close above intermediate resistance at Rs.6750/quintal. Fundamentally, a lack of demand from bulk buyers is seen as a reason for prices to drift lower in the past week.
Pepper Weekly Outlook: Neutral-Negative
Pepper is currently consolidating within the range of Rs.62300-60800/quintal. The short term bias is slightly negative for Pepper and expect prices to decline to Rs.59000-58500/quintal in the coming week if prices break below the current range.
Pepper may also come under selling pressure as the union government is expected to lift bans on imports from Vietnam which is yet to confirmed.
Rubber Weekly Outlook: Neutral
Rubber has been recovering steadily this week supported mainly by short covering and a rise in international prices. Prices are expected to enter into a positive phase on a daily close above resistance at Rs.15000/quintal and move higher to test Rs.16000/quintal next week whereas on the downside, crucial support is seen at Rs.14600/quintal and a strong close below this should see prices enter a prolonged bearish phase in the short term.
An increase in storage and production of rubber along with weaker global demand has been the key reason for the recent price decline.
Cardamom Weekly Outlook: Neutral-Negative
Cardamom recovered slightly higher in the previous week after bouncing off support at Rs.1383/kg and rallied higher to test resistance at Rs.1430/kg. Prices are expected to weaken further in the coming week and shorts are advisable below support at Rs.1383/kg for targets at Rs.1320/kg.
The physical markets are also witnessing a decline in demand over the past few weeks mainly due to adequate stocks with retailers and other buyers.
(Sam Nair is Head of Commodities Research, Celebrus Commodities Limited)