LONDON (Commodity Online): India’s gold import could rise by 30-40% y/y in Q4 as consumers become more comfortable with prices at lower levels and with lower volatility. “Silver imports by India -- the world’s largest bullion consumer-- may rise by 50% y/y in Oct-Dec quarter to 250-300 tonnes taking total imports for the year in excess of 4000 tonnes.” stated Prithviraj Kothari, president of the Bombay Bullion Association.
Longer term investor interest has stabilised across the precious metals with gold holdings edging lower by a modest 0.2 tonnes while metal held in trust across silver and the PGMs was unchanged on Friday, reported Barclays Capital.
Gold ETP holdings have stabilised around 2187 tonnes, a one month high while short-term tactical interest slipped lower according to the latest CFTC data for the week-ended 18 October.
According to bank non-commercial positions in Comex gold fell by 7.5k lots to 127k lots, its lowest since January 2009, on the back of a combination of long liquidation (3.9k lots) and fresh short positions being established (3.6k lots). Non-commercial positions now make up 29% of open interest, thus presenting a cleaner base for fresh longs to build from. Speculative positions in Comex silver also declined primarily due to fresh shorts being established and have fallen to their lowest since September 2007.
In contrast to gold and silver, tactical positioning in PGMs rose as short positions were covered. Physical demand is expected to support both gold and silver prices in coming months, amid the seasonally strong period for consumption.
LME Prices closed the week on a positive note ahead of the EU summit led by gains in palladium. Palladium closed the week 4.7% higher on Friday at $610.7/oz while gold gained 1.4% to settle at $1640.5/oz, Bank reported.
According to Barclays market focus remains on Europe and continues to set the tone of trading. Broadly in line with Barclays' economists’ expectations, the European Council meeting on Sunday offered few details about the key issue of EFSF leverage, Greece haircuts, and bank recapitalisations. Most of the details will likely be discussed more thoroughly at Wednesday's summit.