LONDON (Commodity Online): Natural Gas shed seven cents on a bearish storage report in the morning, but recovered as the day wore on, posting a slight gain. This was the first trade day in some time where prices recovered from a bearish storage report.
On the day, the prompt month rose a penny, to $3.17/MMBtu. The back of the curve was also up a penny, with 2012 standing at $3.44 and calendar 2013 at $4.09. The reported 100 Bcf withdrawal compared with a consensus view of 105 Bcf (and 132 Bcf normally for this time of year), yet this was the first report in a few weeks that missed on the high side.
The storage draw roughly matched the pattern of weather on the week. Where it was cold, as in the West, storage pulls were a strong 23 Bcf. The East, featuring warmer-than-normal weather, withdrew only 63 Bcf, while the lightest withdrawals were in the Producing Region, at 14 Bcf, where pipeline gas met most gas needs.
Weather reports are now featuring the onset of a cold front starting in the Pacific Northwest in the 11-15 day outlook. This is the first colder weather in the forecast, other than the current chilly temperatures hovering over New Mexico and Texas.
Looking past weather, the Conference Board's index of leading indicators rose 0.5% m/m in November, above our economists' forecast and the consensus (0.3%).
Among the factors figuring into the positive report were building permits (0.15pp), jobless claims (0.09pp) and consumer expectations (0.11pp). The index has now risen for seven consecutive months.
Cash markets were up at most hubs. Henry Hub rose three cents, to $3.08. New York (Transco-Z6) climbed seven cents, to $3.40. SoCalBorder pushed 12 cents higher, to $3.48.
