MUMBAI (Commodity Online): India futures at National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange of India (NCDEX) remains weak on Monday trading as weak export demand and expected gains in domestic  production continues to weigh on prices.

NCDEX Pepper December contract fell 5.45% last week to Rs 38745 and has broken all support levels but may not be heading for a sharp fall further as volumes and open interest remains high, according to Sreekumar Raghavan, Chief Commodity Strategist at Commodity Online.

On technical charts, RSI remains very weak , in over sold conditions while and prices are much below 14 day trading averages suggesting bearish trend in the market to continue for some time, MACD is also in negative territory.

Meanwhile, Forward Markets Commission (FMC) is looking into allegations regarding manipulation of pepper prices in recent times.

Fundamentals are also not supportive for pepper as India production is expected to rise above 50,000 tons this year while Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn, up by 12.7% compared with 2.98 lk tn in 2011. Indonesian pepper output Is expected to rise by 24% and in Vietnam by 10% by International Pepper Community (IPC).

According to previous estimates, report pepper output in Vietnam is estimated to be 1.35 lakh tonne as compared to 1.10 lakh tonne estimated early in the beginning of year (2012). Brazil is also expected to produce 22,000 tn this year.