MUMBAI (Commodity Online): After the short covering seen the earlier day, rates fell again for Jeera as the higher levels could not be sustained due to lack of adequate demand in the mandis.
Trend however likely to remain very volatile as better crop expectations from Gujarat and Rajasthan amidst low export and domestic demand would keep pressure on the prices till exports pick up.
Traders anticipate rates have fallen a lot but some recovery can be possible only if exports pick up in December.
Reports as per data compiled by Gujarat Agri Dept indicates more than 50% rise in sowing area to ~1.13 lakh ha vs ~0.50 lakh ha last year.
Good rains early this year could have a positive impact on the sowing activities in Gujarat and Rajasthan. Medium term trend looks firm from expected rise in export demand but short term trend is expected to remain volatile. A firmness in Dollar vs Re too could support the export factor.
Lower production in Turkey and Syria could support Indian rates. Indian production expected at 28-30 lakh bags translating to more than 1.5 lakh tonnes.
Export demand from US and EU could also rise at these lower levels in coming weeks and that could have a moderate bullish impact on the prices.
Latest reports from Spice Board of India indicates estimated exports of Spices for April-Sept 2011 have fallen by 19% from 294925 MT in 2010 to 237585 MT in 2011. Jeera exports fell by 15% from 18800 MT to 16000 MT during same period.
Courtesy:Religare Copmmodities
