The coming week presents a fairly steady flow of economic data releases, but only a few are likely to grab market attention ahead of the key payroll data on Friday.
The January report on the employment situation on Friday will include the annual revision to the establishment survey. Revisions will likely push the numbers for 2011 up a bit, but the focus will be on January 2012 and if there continues to be improvement in private payrolls.
At the moment, analysts expect payrolls to rise 148,000 in January after jumping 200,000 in the previous month on widespread gains. The unemployment rate is expected to rebound to 8.6%.
The ADP National Employment Report for January at on Wednesday should signal another increase in private payrolls. The numbers have registered a fairly substantial miss in the last two months, but have been consistent with the direction of private payroll gains and should at least hint at whether markets can expect another decent reading.
The Challenger report on layoff intentions for January on Thursday may show some pick up in the pace of job cuts. No one industry seems particularly active for the month, but a variety of announcements could add up to a slight deterioration in what has been a largely unchanged rate of layoffs intentions in the last three months of 2011.
Initial jobless claims for the week ended January 21 on Thursday should remain on track with an uneven trend slowly downward. Most of the volatility seen earlier in the month due to a mismatch in seasonal adjustment and movements in unadjusted claims levels should have cleared the numbers, and the underlying trends should be more visible.
The ISM Manufacturing Index for January at on Wednesday is expected to reflect the modest expansion shown in the various surveys of manufacturing from regional purchasing managers and Fed District Banks. The factory sector is still regaining some upward direction after the softness seen in the summer months in 2011.
Prior to the release of the national data from the ISM, the Dallas Fed will release the Texas Manufacturing Outlook at on Monday, and the Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer will be released at on Tuesday.
Data from the New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond Feds have pointed to a stronger factory sector, and Dallas should as well. The Chicago PMI has had firm readings for more than two years, but it includes some non - manufacturing businesses as well as manufacturing.
The Dallas Fed‘s Texas Service Sector Outlook will be reported on Tuesday. The Richmond Fed‘s survey for services was showed a slightly slower pace for services, but still expanding. The Dallas report is likely to be much the same. If so, these suggest that when the ISM Non - Manufacturing Index for January is released on Friday, it will be for another month of modest expansion at the national level.
New orders for factory goods in December on Friday should take its tone from the solid 3.0% rise in durables orders reported on January 26. Non - durable orders are likely to reflect increases in petroleum prices. In combination, this should result in a fairly strong report at year - end. The durables component was very much due to gains in nondefense aircraft orders, but there was some strength in other components.
Courtesy: CPM Group for DGCX
