By Sreekumar Raghavan Today I have to revisit some of the key commodities that was tracked yesterday including the Pepper, Turmeric, soybean, ref soyoil and what’s new is that soybean has show a remarakable turnaround in CBOT and that is also been reflected at India’s National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), while the corrective phase that I talked about in pepper futures is hardly over today.
Soybean slump and recovery The US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) announcement that China had canceled another 540,000 MT of soybean purchases of 2012-13 after cancelling 300,000 MT earlier caused a slump in CBOT soybeans and related products in the previous two sessions. But it has rallied again on lower prices and a dry spell in Brazil increasing crop stress while Argentina acreage may be reduced on excessive rains.
On Friday electronic trade, CBOT Soybean March has witnessed a gain of more than 1.2% to $14.22 per bushel but still posting losses on a weekly basis. Reflecting this trend, NCDEX soybean Jan has gained 0.92% at Rs 3328 per 100 kg, Feb has gained 0.77% at Rs 3395, March has gained 0.63% at 3365.5 and April has gained 0.61% at 3362.
On daily charts, sideways movement is indicated with RSI at 66.73, resistance seen at 3413 and 3427 near term, 50 day SMA is higher at 3315.36 compared to 20 day SMA of 3285 suggesting near term weakness. But positive MACD, higher open interest suggest speculative action however low average volume is not suggestive of a sustained rally.
Refined soy oil January has gained 0.89% at Rs 707.69 per 10 kg, Feb has gained 0.94% at Rs 695, March gained 0.73% at Rs 687.9 and April 0.6% at Rs 689.5.
Pepper corrective phase
Pepper February has fallen 1.86% to Rs 34850 per 100 kg, March has fallen 2.02% to Rs 34380 and April has fallen 2.36% to Rs 34305. The corrective phase that was seen in Pepper charts yesterday continues to impact market sentiments and RSI of 70.06 is quite bullish for the spice but volume is weak, high open interest is indicative of speculative interest but MACD is in negative. Near term weakness is seen from 20 day SMA of 34529 as against 50 day SMA of 35990. The corrective phase can pull down pepper to 34500 levels before it can climb again. Sideways to positive trend can emerge in the beginning of next week.
Chill iMarch has fallen 1.57% to Rs 6150 per 100 kg while April has fallen 1.17% to Rs 6272. Arrival pressure is adversely impacting chilli prices although production this year is expected to be 25% lower in Guntur on lower acreage. However total chilli production in the current year is estimated at 2.90-3 crore bags (1 bag=50 kg) against 2.80 lakh bags last year. The harvest in major producing states is expected to gather momentum in the next few weeks.
On daily charts, NCDEX Chilli March is exhibiting a flat trend with a negative bias, RSI is neutral at 43.91 while volumes are average, open interest quite high, MACD is in positive territory. Sideways to negative trend is seen for the near term. Near term support is seen at Rs 6064 levels.
Turmeric charts as pointed out yesterday is in oversold territory and corrective phase seems to be on as reflected in weaker prices on Friday.