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Downside support for gold increases

By Walter de Wet
Gold has reached higher. The $1,100 level has been offering very strong resistance and, after failing to break below this level, the appetite to short gold may now be declining. We believe that Fed’s decision to keep monetary policy accommodative should provide gold more downside support.

We don’t yet believe that gold can break out of the $1,150 – $1,100 range in which it has been since the second week of December. However, downside support is increasing. We have seen increased physical buying interest for gold on approach of $1,100.

Still, while we believe that support for gold is growing, range trading remains our preferred strategy: sell into rallies, and buy the dips. When we change strategy, it will be to buy the dips and then staying long gold. Support is at $1,116 and $1,101, resistance at $1,134 and $1,140.

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Platinum is higher, so is palladium. We are looking for platinum to test resistance at $1,640. ETF activity in both platinum and palladium has been fairly muted in recent days. Total ETF platinum holdings now stand at 927,124oz. However, we expect platinum demand from ETFs to remain robust. This should continue to move platinum metal further away from the market. While resistance is at $1,640, support is at $1,610.

Palladium has rallied to $475. Support is at $460 and resistance at $480. Silver support is at $16.20 and $16.90, resistance at $17.60 and $17.75. As with gold, we believe that silver will remain range bound.

We are looking with keen interest at the oil market today. Should the DOE inventory report be bullish, we expect all commodities to enjoy good buying. Precious metals should also benefit.

Courtesy: Standard Bank

MCX FLAKE MENTHOL 29 February 2012 contract was trading at Rs 1724 , up Rs. 99 . What's your view on it?
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