Chana futures continued its upward rally and settled 1.5% higher on estimated lower output from the three major producing states i.e Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Karnataka. Further, emergence of fresh demand at lower levels also supported prices to remain firm.
Although seasonality pattern is seen pressurizing prices at higher levels, fresh demand amidst negligible carry over stocks of last year may restrict sharp downside.
Sowing of Pulses in India as on 27th Jan, 2011 stood at 145.86 lakh hectares, 0.6% lower as compared to 146.76 lakh hectares in the same period previous year.
Chana area till January 27, 2012 was lower by 4.11% and stood at 89.57 lakh hectares as compared to 93.41 lakh hectares in the same period previous year.
Crop progress and Production
Chana is the main Rabi Pulse crop grown in India, sowing of which is done during October-December, and harvesting begins in January. Sowing of Chana began on a brisk note; however, the progress was not satisfactory in Maharashtra, Karnataka, UP, Bihar and AP and thus acreage has declined drastically.
Further, unfavorable weather in Central and Southern India may lower Chana yield in the coming season. MP is the largest Chana producing state in India with more than 40% share in total production, followed by Maharashtra -12-14% and Rajasthan- 10-12%.
According to the Rajasthan farm department’s first advance estimates for Rabi crops, Chana output is estimated 7.8% lower at 14.75 lakh tonnes in 2011-12 seasons against 16 lakh tonnes in 2010-11.
Maharashtra’s 2011-12 Chana output is seen at 7.5 lakh tn, down 42%, while Karnataka’s 2011-12 output is seen at 4.98 lakh tn compared to 6 lakh tn last year.
Indian government is targeting total pulses output of 17 mln tn in the current crop year that started July 2011, down marginally from last year's record production of 18.09 mln tn on account of 10% decline in Kharif Pulses output.
Although government has targeted higher Rabi Pulses output, it is difficult to achieve the same taking into consideration the sowing progress and prevailing weather conditions.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
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