Market review
The spice complex on NCDEX traded mixed on Saturday as jeera and turmeric dropped while pepper prices moved up on demand. Active pepper july settled at Rs.16442 up by Rs.103, jeera july closed at Rs.11945 down by 36rupees and july turmeric prices ended around Rs.14476 dropped by 124 rupees.

Fundamental factors
Pepper
Pepper prices rose Saturday on brisk buying by speculators and strong demand in the spot market. In spot market pepper prices rose by 100 rupees to Rs.16300 and arrivals improved to 30 from 20mt Friday. The world's largest producer and exporter, Vietnam is having less quantity for exports. The major consuming nations are having lower carry over stocks. Total pepper export from the country during 2010 financial year dropped by 22% to 19750mt.

Jeera
Jeera prices dropped on Saturday owing to weak local and exports demand. Adequate stocks on higher arrivals from the producing belts also weighed on the prices. In Unjha spot market, jeera traded at 12340 rupees from 12353-12365 rupees in previous session. The overall slowdown in trading activity in spot markets due to the rains also weighed on the overall sentiment. In the 2010 financial, year Indian jeera export down by 5% to 49750mt.

Turmeric
Turmeric prices fell on NCDEX on sluggish demand against adequate stocks. Lower advices from producing belts also put pressure on the prices. Reduced offtake by local parties in the wholesale market weighed on the sentiment.

However, proper advancement of the south west monsoon in the interior parts of India like, Andhra Pradesh will induce farmers to go for improved sowing of the Turmeric due to better profits earned in the last year. This will pressurize prices in the coming session. India’s turmeric export during 2010 financial year dropped by 3% to 50750mt.

SOY COMPLEX
Market review
Soy complex recovered sharply on week end on short covering even as global markets remained almost steady on Friday. The soy bean July contract rebounded from Rs1893 and closed at Rs1904. Soy oil July futures moved up on fresh buying support after it took strong support at 440 levels for several days.

Outlook
Lack of selling pressure at lower levels and recovery in global markets may support upside movement in domestic soy complex. Meanwhile, huge stocks of soy bean and other edible oil seeds may restrict major rise in long term.

As per reports, about 14 million tonnes of edible oil seeds are lying with farmers, traders and processors, which is more than sufficient to meet the demand till next crop. Monsoon is progressing well across major kharif oil seeds growing states. As per recent data, sowing of kharif crops including edible oil seeds is lagging behind expectation.

CBOT soy bean futures are trading firm at 966 cents, while soy oil futures are trading well above 38 cents. For the day, soy bean and soy oil futures are expected to remain sideways with firm bias on firm global markets.

Others
Market review
Chana
Chana future down on account of low demand in the market. due to sturdy arrivals in major mandies coupled with beginning of fresh sowing of kharif pulses. NCDEX chana july closed at Rs.2152 down by 3 rupees

Guar seed
Guarseed moved up on export demand and poor supplies, Active july contract moved in the range of 2248-2275 before settled at Rs.2264 up by 14 rupees.

Outlook
Chana
Traders fear that quality of produce might get affected due to monsoon season as huge stocks may create storage problem. Sowing of kharif pulses picking up well due to higher MSP and also higher spot prices. As per latest data release by Ministry of Agriculture, the total sowing acreage of kharif pulses as on 12th June 2010 was at 0.954 lakh hectares against 0.803 lakh hectares reported last year. Chan spot prices in the Indore market stable at Rs.2008 per quintal.

Guar seed
Guar futures on Saturday have moved on export demand and poor supplies but monsoon rains. Guar seed sowing in Rajasthan is expected to commence in the last week of June. In 2009-10, guar acreage in Rajasthan stood at 2.58 million ha. Ideally, guar needs rainfall in mid July, mid August and then September end for good growth and yield. Rajasthan contributes around 50% of the total guar production while Haryana has a share of 25%. The rest comes from states like Gujarat, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Supplies in the market are very poor. In the Jodhpur spot market, guar seed inched up 5 rupees to end at 2,206 rupees per 100 kg.

Courtesy: JRG Commodities Research

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