Lower arrivals in the domestic markets amidst slight recovery in demand from the local stockists have led prices to settle 1.02% higher on Friday. Futures however traded bearish owing to expectation that fresh arrivals might improve in the coming days and settled 1.81% lower on Friday. Overseas buyers are following a wait and watch stance and are absent from the market.
Indian parity in the international market is being offered at $6,625/tonne while Vietnam 550 GL was being offered around $6,225/tonne.
Exports
According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper during April 2011- November 2011 stood at 17,000 tonnes as compared to 11,850 tonnes in 2010-11, rise of 43.6%.
According to International Pepper Community (IPC) exports of black pepper during January to October 2011 from six major exporting countries (Brazil, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Sri Lanka) was around 2.04 lakh tonnes a decline of 4.6% as compared to 2.14 lakh tonne in the same period last year.
Pepper imports by U.S during April to November 2011 surged marginally by 1.58% to 64,276 tonnes as compared to 63,274 tonnes during the same period in 2010-11. Indonesia remained the major supplier to U.S. in the above mentioned period.
Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 40% as compared to previous year. Exports stood at 29,000 tonnes as compared to 48,500 tonnes in the last year.
During 2011, Brazil exported 32,676 tonnes of pepper a rise of 6% as compared to 30,786 tonnes in 2010. U.S. remained the major destination of the pepper imports, importing around 12,820 tonnes.
Production and Arrivals
Arrivals of pepper in domestic market stood at 12 tonnes as compared to 7 tonnes amidst offtakes of 50 tonnes on Thursday.
Global Pepper production in 2012 is expected to increase 7.2% to 3.20 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.98 lakh tonnes in 2011 with sharp rise of 24% in Indonesian pepper output and in Vietnam by 10%. Pepper production in Vietnam and Indonesia is projected at 1.10 lakh tonnes while that in Indonesia is projected to be 41 thousand tonnes. (Source: Financial Express).
Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by 3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to 2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Peppertradeboard) On the other hand production of pepper in India in 2011-12 is expected to be scale down further by 5% to 43 thousand tonnes as compared to 48 thousand tonnes in the last year.
Outlook
Pepper prices in the intraday are expected to remain sideways due lacklustre demand from the overseas and domestic buyers. In the short term (till February) prices are likely to take cues from fresh arrivals in the domestic market as well as in Vietnam. Arrivals will gain momentum by mid of February in the domestic markets. This is likely to pressurize prices in that period.
In the medium to long term (March to April 2012) prices are likely to witness selling pressure as the global pepper production estimates are projected to be higher as compared to last year and fresh arrivals will be at peak in the domestic market. Prices in the international market of major origins will also determine price trend in the domestic market.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
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