Fundamental Analysis

July Soybean futures closed mildly lower on progress of monsoon in soybean producing states on Wednesday.

The USDA’s weekly export inspections were 7.384 million bushels, up from 5.059 million last week. Cumulative inspections stand at 92.4% of the USDA's projection for 2009/10 versus a 5-year average of 88.0%.

Inspections need to average 9.369 million bushels each week to reach the USDA's projection.

The USDA lowered 2009/10 & 2010/2011 soybean ending stocks by 5 million bushels from last month to 185 million and 360 million bushels respectively as compares with 138 million last year.

World ending stocks for 2009/10 were pegged at 65.47 million tonnes from 63.76 million last month and from 43.7 million tonnes last year.

Technical Analysis

Prices closed below its 10 Day and its 20 Day EMA, which indicates bearish market sentiments.

14-Day RSI is at 41.56, which is in neutral region.

Outlook

Soybean prices are expected to trade range bound on lack of fresh fundamentals (for short term). However, in the long term perspective, progress of monsoon and better carry over stock this year as compared to last year. Higher global soybean production estimate this year as compared to last year in favour of bears.

Courtesy: Angel Commodities

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