The base metal complex traded steady for the day as supported by the weakness in dollar index and rise in Japanese refined copper production. Moreover, china waiving its export rebate also came as supporting news in the market that could prevent over-supplies. The fall in durable goods orders wasn’t taken as a surprise in the market with weaker expectations already been discounted. However the lowering jobless claims and continuing claims over and above the expectations catch hold of the market bringing in support

On the fundamental front, Chinese demand for primary aluminium is likely to nearly triple to 43.6 million tonnes in 2020 from an estimated 15.5 million tonnes this year, while on the other hand, Alcoa, the world's biggest aluminium producer, said inventories of the light metal would continue an ascent to record highs and that it was mulling investment opportunities in thermal and hydropower-rich Iceland

Talking about the US data releases, new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2010 decreased 1.1% from April, to $192.0 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.9% from the prior month, to $145.1 billion. Total shipments decreased 0.4% to $196.0 billion

OUTLOOK

Australia, the largest shipper of iron ore and coal, is likely to alter rather than scrap a proposed mining tax of 40% after the appointment of new Prime Minister Julia Gillard. The mining majors like BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto has stopped their campaigns after this news and the shares of the companies rose on the previous day

Day ahead, market looks forward for a host of significant data releases from the US. The Q1-2010 annualized GDP is expecting to remain at the same levels of 3.00%--same of Q4-2010. Moreover, the personal consumption for the same quarter is also maintaining the prior levels of 3.50%. Following this, the forecasted June United of Michigan Confidence remains unchanged at 75.5. Since the data releases are keeping up the prior levels no such impact is anticipated while any deviations either side would be watchful

The Asian markets run considerable low after the Wall Street ended in negative territories, on the previous day. The banking stocks fell on concern over financial regulation and after the charges on Greek default surged to a record, while consumer shares retreated

The dollar index, a performance track against the majors, is tuning direction off and on after the effect of Yuan strength fades away. The gains in Japanese Yen are been cut down by the weakness in Euro and Pound and thus keeping the dollar index flat. Any further unacceptable news from the Euro nations might drag the 16-naiton single currency lower and result in Dollar strengthening

We from KCTL expect MCX metals complex to open slightly low as the electronic session at LME runs partial low. This could be a profit booking session after the rally on the previous days. Market is surrounded by bad news from all the fronts – disappointing US data, poor outlook from the Euro-zone and some slowing down seen in China. In this purview investors chasing the markets become quite unlikely. The fall in equity markets and overall weaker data releases in the whole week are expected to keep the metals low. The last trading session of week on the international front, would draw back investors from keeping longs—unclear about views and trend for next week. Overall we expect prices to trade sideways, while intraday buying could be seen at lower levels

Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.

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