Fundamental Analysis

Pepper prices at Kochi market remained bearish due to lacklustre demand from the local stockists and oversea buyers. Overseas buyers are following a wait and watch and waiting for the prices to stabilize.

Pepper fresh arrivals in Vietnam are likely to commence from the first week of March or by mid of the month. Indian pepper arrivals may also gain pace in the coming weeks. This may pressurize the prices in absence of significant demand in short term.

Pepper prices broadly in the short term (till February) may depend on the arrivals in the domestic mandis, overseas and domestic demand and pepper prices in the international market of the various origins such as Indian, Vietnam, Brazil and Indonesia.

In the medium to long term (March onwards) prices may depend on the pepper stocks in Vietnam, Indonesia and Brazil. Demand from the overseas and domestic market, clear production estimates of Vietnam.

Technical Analysis

The 14-Day RSI is at 27.7 and is trading in oversold region.

Prices closed below its 10-Day and its 20-Day EMA indicating downward trend.

MACD is which was trading in the positive territory has crept into the negative territory.

Outlook

Pepper prices in the intraday may trade in sideways down manner due to lacklustre trades at the domestic and overseas market. In the short term (till February 2010) Pepper prices may be determined by demand from the domestic and overseas buyers and fresh pepper arrivals in the domestic market.

In the medium to long term (March onwards) prices may be determined by the demand from the overseas and domestic market, Indian production for the year 2010, pepper price parity of the major origins such as Brazil, Indonesia, India and Vietnam.

Courtesy: Angel Commodities

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