Last Updated : July 06, 2010 13:20
Pepper is expected to remain range bounded
Fundamental Analysis Black pepper prices at the domestic will depend on the price quotes offered by Indonesia in international market. If, the Indonesian pepper prices are lower than Indian origin i.e. at a difference of $200/tonne then the overseas buyers will shift to cheaper destination. This will pressurize the prices in the near term ( 10-15) days.
However, global scarcity of pepper due to lower production at around 2.78 lakh tonnes and improved consumption at around 3.20 lakh tonnes will support the prices from falling further. In the domestic market too, stockists and farmers will not sell their pepper at lower levels which will provide support to the prices.
Vietnam, the major producer of pepper has exported around 65,000 tonnes of pepper till date from its availability of 1.10 lakh tonnes. They too will hoard their pepper stocks as the fresh arrivals in the Vietnam will commence in the April next year. This will be supportive to the price trend in the short term (till July). In the medium to long term (August end onwards) prices will depend on the pepper stocks with major producers such as India and Vietnam and Black pepper production estimates of Brazil the other major producer.
Spread between July and August contract was Rs.208 as compared to Rs.213 the previous day.
Technical Analysis
Prices closed above its 10-Day and its 20-Day EMA indicating upward trend.
The 14-Day RSI is at 60.1 and is in neutral zone.
Outlook:
Pepper prices in the intraday are expected to trade sideways manner due to lacklustre trades at the domestic market. In the short term (till July), Pepper prices will remain firm due to lower global Black pepper availability. In the medium to long term (August onwards), price trend will depend on demand from the overseas and domestic market, pepper production in Indonesia and Brazil and pepper price parity of the major origins such as Brazil, Indonesia, India and Vietnam.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities Exclusive and reserved reports now open to public
MCX ALMOND 30 April 2012
contract was trading at
Rs 376.25 . What's your view on it?
