Fundamental Analysis

April soybean futures ended slightly lower amid subdued trading activity on account of poor export demand of domestic soy meal.

The USDA lowered 2009/10 soybean ending stocks to 190 million bushels from 210 million bushels in February. Traders were looking for a slightly higher total near 195 million bushels. The ending stocks projection is now down by 55 million bushels from the USDA's December report.

Exports were revised higher by 20 million bushels and crush was raised by 10 million. Soybean oil ending stocks were raised sharply to 2.637 billion pounds from 2.227 million last month along with a 300 million pound drop in domestic usage. The USDA pegged Brazil production at 67 million tonnes compared with 66 million tonnes last month.

Argentina was left unchanged at 53 million tonnes. World soybean ending stocks for 2009/10 were raised to 60.67 million tonnes from 59.73 million tonnes in February.

Technical Analysis

Prices closed below its 10 Day and below its 20 Day EMA, which indicates bearish market sentiments.

14-Day RSI is at 34.16, which is in neutral zone.

Daily MACD is in positive territory.

Outlook

Soybean prices are expected to trade slightly lower amid subdued trading activity on lack of fresh fundamentals (for short term). In the long term perspective, soybean prices are expected to trade lower on poor export demand of domestic soy meal and favorable weather in Argentina for soy bean crop. Globally soybean production is estimated higher as compared to last year also in favour of bears in the market.

Courtesy: Angel Commodities

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