Chilli August futures in NCDEX closed higher on expectation of export demand. According to the officials premier quality Exporters were not actively buying from the spot and demanding compensation for losses incurred in last month fire. The Guntur spot market, the biggest market for the commodity in the country, had resumed trading after a long break. On May 3, around 25-30 percent of the total crop is lost on a fire at Guntur, which comes to around 200,000 bags of 40 kilograms each.
In Guntur spot market chilli was quoted at Rs 4824.7, up Rs.30.8


Influencing Factors: Chilli

• Expectation of export demand
• According to the officials’ premier quality chilli have fallen 68 percent to 1.5million bags in cold storage in Guntur.
• Arrival pressure in the main spot market Guntur.
• Exporters are waiting for new purchase
• The Warehouse stock movements.
• The chilli production in the country is likely to be below the projected target of 1.2 million tonnes in 2007-08.
• Drop in output in the major competitors like Pakistan & China have enhanced export opportunities
• Around 25-30 percent of the total crop is lost on a fire at Guntur, which is around 200,000 bags of 40 kilograms each.
• The export of chilli from India has reached an all time high of 2,09,000 tonnes valued at Rs 1,097.50 crore, an increase of 41 per cent in volume and 36 per cent in value terms


Technical Outlook

Technically Chilli August closed below 9 day EMA and 21 day EMA.

Today’s Recommendation

NCDEX Chilli August buy above 5236 SL below 5170 targets 5288, 5347, 5398