Though market trend is bearish today but weakness in Rs vs Dollar has favored the situation for exporters. Market is supposed to fall more as arrival pressure would increase ahead.

In the midst of some buying interest, around, 25000 bags arrival was noted in the all producing areas. As per traders, bottom price of guar seed would be Rs 1500/Q. Market trend would largely depend on the buying interest of guar gum in the midst of its arrival pressure.

Buying interest is reportedly low in Jodhpur. As per traders, per acre production figure in some places has been reduced. Traders should follow wait and watch policy until the trend gets clear.

Production related figure would clear with arrivals. Offer for guar gum is being seen at Rs 4230/Q in Shivani of Haryana, for guar seed at Rs 1600/Q while in Shriganganagar market, rate quoted at Rs 1530/Q for new guar seed.

The production figures are still not clear. As per reports, the per acre production is also likely to remain low which may provide support to the prices. Reports of delayed arrivals and some improved demand at the lower levels are also likely to have some bullish impact on the market.

Better demand for the by-products churi and korma reported mainly from the Gulf countries.

A stronger Dollar can also have a positive impact on the export front. Millers purchasing have increased in guarseed at prevailing low rates. Selling pressure in mandis is not being noticed as rates are at low level.

Price Drivers
Bullish
Fall in arrivals due to rains in some areas in Rajasthan and increased demand at the lower levels.
Reports of lower productivity in Haryana and Rajasthan.
Reports of crop damage from some areas in Rajasthan and Haryana.
Strength in Dollar vs Re can provide impetus on the export front.

Bearish
Weak sentiments prevailing in agri commodities market.
Lack of demand from the millers at current rates.
Absence of significant export demand
Better sowing reported from areas in Rajasthan that had received rains recently.

Courtesy: Religare Commodities