Mustard Seed likely to trade range bound on higher sowing

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Global Recap – 3rd July, 09

Commodities recap evening of 3rd July, 09

Gold to remain subdued this month

Silver falling throughout month

Copper trade bi-directional

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Fundamental Analysis

Mustard seed futures closed higher in tandem with other oilseeds on account of imposition of 20% import duty on crude soy oil by Govt. of India.

Global rape/mustard seed output is forecast at 56 million tonnes in 2008-09, up from 49 million tonnes last year. Rape/mustard oil production is forecast at 20.60 million tonnes in 2008-09, up from 19.4 million tonnes last year.

Significant gains are expected in Canada rapeseed (canola) production is projected at 11.3 million tonnes this year from 9.6 million tonnes last year. China’s output is projected at 11.50 million tonnes this year from 10.4 million tonnes last year. India’s Output projected at 6.2 million tonnes this year from 5.3 million tonnes last year. EU largest rapeseed producer projected at 18.90 million tonnes this year, up from 18.3 million tonnes last year.

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Technical Analysis

Prices (NCDEX Jan Contract) closed lower at 528.35 on Wednesday; from its high of the day (539.00) and touched a low of 527.50.

Prices closed below its 10 Days & its 20 Days EMA. 14-Days RSI is at 35.15.

Prices are expected to trade down with short-term support and resistance.

Outlook

Mustard seed prices are expected to trade range bound with weak sentiments on account of higher sowing acreage estimates of mustard seed this year as compared to last year also in favor of bears.

Courtesy: Angel Commodities