Rubber futures in NMCE stayed firm on last Saturday as spot market remaining largely unchanged. Arrivals in domestic markets declined marginally as wide spread rains in growing area disrupt tapping for the past few days. Most Asian markets were closed last week with a positive sign.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's tire production rose 20% in October to 59.02 million metric tons. In the January-October period, China produced 540.65 million tons of tires, up 15%. However rubber imports to China are in a declining trend. China imported 100,000 tons of natural rubber in October, preliminary data from the General Administration of Customs showed Wednesday. In the year to date, total imports fell 2.8% to 1.41 million tons, the customs department said.
According to the country's Rubber Board, India's natural rubber output this year will likely total 835,000 metric tons, down 5.2% due to adverse weather and an increasing proportion of low-yield, aging plantations. India's rubber replanting program is running way behind schedule and 70,000 hectares need to be replanted immediately to improve yield. Most of the trees of those 70,000 hectares are between 28 and 29 years old. In India only 9,000 Hectares Rubber Area Replanted In 2008.
Indonesia's natural rubber output is likely to fall to 2.59 million metric tons this year from 2.75 million tons last year due to dry weather has affected yields. Reports from Thailand, Thailand expected to expand rubber area by around 870,000 hectares in northern and northeastern regions, where the weather is more conducive for rubber tapping. Natural rubber output in the January-August period in Thailand, the world's largest producer, was 1.9 million tons, 8.3% lower from a year ago.
In the mean time, India's natural rubber import hit a record high of 126,000 tonne during Apr-Oct, according to provisional estimates of the Rubber Board. The increase during Apr-Oct is a good 219% year on year, according to the board. According to projections by the Automotive Tyre Manufacturers Association, natural rubber import may touch 150,000 tn in 2009-10. According to latest report from International Rubber Study Group, Global rubber supply may jump 30 percent by 2015 and may increase by 50 percent by 2020, due to dramatic increase in total new planting. In 2008 total new planting is estimated to have reached around six times the level of 2000.
NMCE rubber moved in the range of Rs11420-11350 last traded at Rs.11401 (11372) Open interest increased by 70 to 1865. Rubber stocks at NMCE accredited warehouses increased by 143mt. to 1441 Mt.
INTRADAY OUTLOOK NMCE Rubber December futures support lies at 11265 and 11230. Resistance is at 11355 and 11410.
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