Fundamental Analysis
Benchmark pepper prices at Kochi were quoted at steady rates with slow trades at the domestic market.
Pepper futures past few days are trading in rangebound manner. Prices in the near term are expected to trade in range of Rs.12650- Rs.13150/qtl with no immediate fundamentals to drive the prices.
Pepper parity in the international market being with minimal difference of $200/tonne between different origins may drive overseas buyers to the Indian nation. Once the fresh orders are placed in the nation prices may find support and strengthen in the medium term (July mid onwards).
Further, pepper production in Indonesia and Brazil in 2009, their carry forward stocks of pepper and demand from the overseas may determine the pepper prices in long term (July end onwards).
Technical Analysis
Pepper prices (NCDEX July 09 Contract) closed at Rs.12, 806/qtl up by Rs.64/quintal as compared to Saturday’s close of Rs. 12,870/qtl.
The 14-Day RSI is at 47.8 and is moving in sideways manner.
Outlook
Lacklustre trades at the overseas and domestic market may keep Pepper prices range bound in the intraday. In the short term (June) Pepper prices may be determined by demand from the overseas and domestic market and competitive rates of pepper of various origins in the international market. In the medium to long term (June end till August) various other factors may determine the price trend such as stocks with Vietnam, Brazil and Indonesia’s pepper production for the year 2009 and demand from the overseas market.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
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