Fundamental Analysis NCDEX Soybean futures moved southwards on account of lower export demand of soy meal and profit booking after last week’s rally.
Area covered under kharif oilseeds is 6.63 lakh hectares, down by 65% as compared to 19.23 lakh hectares in corresponding period a year ago, due to delayed monsoon this year. Domestic area under soybean is reported lower at 1.63 lakh hectare compared to 8.11 lakh hectare in the corresponding period a year ago.
The Central organization for Oil Industry & Trade (COOIT), has called for an immediate re-imposition of customs duty on imports of edible oils. COOIT said that huge import of edible oil at cheaper rate may affect the viability of the crushing and processing industry. Imports of edible oil surged 85% in first 7 month of marketing of edible oil (November 2008-May 2009).
Technical Analysis
Prices (NCDEX July Contract) closed lower at Rs.2489.00 per quintal on Monday; its high of the day was 2520.00 and touched a low of 2471.00 levels.
Prices closed below its 10 Days & its 20 Days EMA. 14-Days RSI is at 39.39.
Outlook
Soybean prices are expected to trade range bound amidst subdued trading activity on lack of fresh fundamentals for short term. For medium term, prices are expected to move northwards on account of lower stock of soybean and monsoon rains is weak at the start of soybean planting season, which is delaying planting in major producing states.
However, for long term, prices are expected to move southwards owing to higher sowing acreage estimates for this year as compared to last year on account of better realization to farmers as compared to other crops. Globally soybean production is estimated higher as compared to last year may provide support to bears.
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