Soybean:May decline on poor demand for soymeal

Fundamental Analysis

NCDEX Soybean futures moved southwards on account of lower export demand of soy meal.

USDA’s planted Acreage Report released on Tuesday, which shows soybean acreage number was only 77.43 million acres, about 500,000 acres below trade expectations. However, this was still up from 76.024 million acres on the USDA’s March 31st report, it is largest soybean acreage number on record.

Area covered under kharif oilseeds is 6.63 lakh hectares, down by 65% as compared to 19.23 lakh hectares in corresponding period a year ago, due to delayed monsoon this year.

Domestic area under soybean is reported lower at 1.63 lakh hectare compared to 8.11 lakh hectare in the corresponding period a year ago.

Technical Analysis

Prices (NCDEX July Contract) closed lower at Rs.2460.00 per quintal on Thursday; its high of the day was 2480.00 and touched a low of 2446.00 levels.

Prices closed below its 10 Days & its 20 Days EMA. 14-Days RSI is at 36.15.

Outlook

Soybean prices are expected to trade lower on account of poor export demand of soy meal from global livestock industry for short term. For medium term, prices are expected to move northwards on account of lower stock of soybean and monsoon rains is weak at the start of soybean planting season, which is delaying planting in major producing states.

However, for long term, prices are expected to move southwards owing to higher sowing acreage estimates for this year as compared to last year on account of better realization to farmers as compared to other crops. Globally soybean production is estimated higher as compared to last year may provide support to bears.

Courtesy: Angel Commodities

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