With spot weak, Pepper Futures also weakens

Fundamental Analysis

Spot prices at the benchmark Kochi market were quoted at lower rates tracking pepper futures and lacklustre trades at the domestic market.

Pepper futures after making a high of Rs.15, 410/qtl declined due to profit booking by the market participants at the resistance levels. Prices in the coming days after giving correction are likely to trade in sideways to up manner due to price supportive fundamentals.

Pepper prices in short term (till end of November 2009) are expected to trade sideways to up manner due to demand from the domestic market ahead of winter season. Further reports of lower stocks of pepper with Vietnam may provide support to the prices.

In the medium term to long term (December onwards) prices may depend on the demand from the overseas and domestic market, clear production estimates of Vietnam and Indian production for the year 2010, pepper price parity of the major origins such as Brazil, Indonesia, India and Vietnam.

Technical Analysis

Pepper prices (NCDEX December 09 Contract) closed at Rs.15,040/qtl lower than Monday’s close of Rs. 15,182/qtl.

The 14-Day RSI is at 51.3 and is moving in sideways manner.

Outlook:

Pepper prices in the intraday may trade in sideways to up manner due to improved buying by the stockists at the domestic market. In the short term (till November) Pepper prices may be determined by the lower stocks of pepper with major pepper growing nations and demand from the domestic and overseas buyers. In the medium to long term (December onwards) prices may be determined by the demand from the overseas and domestic market, Indian production for the year 2010, pepper price parity of the major origins such as Brazil, Indonesia, India and Vietnam.

Courtesy: Angel Commodities

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