RM Seed Nov futures in NCDEX dropped, ended marginally lower on profit booking after it gains in the last few sessions, but the far-month futures continued the uptrend on firm spot market, where demand from oil millers are higher. In Jaipur and Kota rapeseed gained on stockiest' buying. In Alwar, Bharatpur and Kherli rapeseed prices gained on higher demand from upcountry markets.
Oilseeds output is forecast to be 17.95 million tonnes, 9.5 percent lower than the previous estimate, while the forecast for corn, which has also been hit by floods in the eastern Bihar state, has been cut by 14 percent to 13.04 million tonnes. India has two crop cycles. Summer-sown crops of rice, corn and oilseeds are planted between June and September and harvested from October. Farmers sow wheat and other winter-planted crops in October and November and start harvesting from March.
Russia, the area sown for rapeseeds will rise to 698,000 hectares in 2008/09 from 659, 000, this, coupled with an increase in yields of 1.00 tonne per hectare from 0.96 tonnes will increase the crop to 637,000 tonnes from 575,000 tonnes. Rapeseed exports in 2008/09 are estimated to rise to 60,000 tonnes from 45,000 tonnes,
Influencing Factors: Firm spot market
Short covering
Domestic demand
Recovery global oilseed prices
Higher price movements in CBOT/DCE
Tracking other oilseed prices
Increasing where house stocks
The government has banned export of edible oil for one year to check rising domestic prices and control inflation. The ban will be in place till March 16, 2009.
The country's total oilseeds production in the year ending September 2009 is forecasted at 36 million tonnes, up 6 percent from the year ending September 2008.
Technical Outlook Technically RM Seed November closed above 9 day EMA and 21 day EMA.
Today’s Recommendation NCDEX RM Seed November buy above 607 SL below 601 targets 612.5, 616.7,620
Courtesy: JRG Wealth Management
