Soybean far-month futures in NCDEX ended down on Thursday on profit-taking triggered by weakness in overseas markets and hopes fresh arrivals will start soon in the spot markets. Soybean prices in the Nagpur Agriculture Produce and Marketing Committee (APMC) moved down on lack of demand from local crushing plants.
Weak trend in soymeal, high moisture content Soya arrival and easy condition on Madhya Pradesh Soya market also helped to push down prices in thin trading activity. Trading activity was reported thin as farmers were reluctant to sell it low prices, affecting arrival.
However, prices may rise on Friday after the government said it expected oilseed output in the year ending September 2009 at 17.95 million tonnes against 19.84 million tonnes estimated in July. Spot prices of soybean were firm on expectations of a slight delay in peak soybean arrivals. Soybean prices in Indore ended up over 1.2 percent at about 17,500-20,750 rupees per tonne.
As per Traders view despite a rise in arrivals, the peak arrival season may be delayed by a few weeks due to delay in crop sowing and this may restrict the loss and the demand remains firm from oil meal extractors, but they are is reluctant to buy due to high moisture content of around 20 percent to 25 percent in the fresh crop.
In Indore, prices are expected to remain stable in physical market due to normal demand. Arrivals were reported at around 5,500 to 6,000 quintals, last quoted was Rs 2108 up by Rs 26 per 100Kg.
Influencing Factors: Mixed spot market
Profit booking
Fresh arrivals will start soon
Normal demand in spot
Bumper soy bean crop this year
Excepting higher output
Stockiest selling
Lower Price movements in CBOT/DCE
Higher energy prices
nil exchange stocks
USDA report that lowered estimated production.
Excepted demand for an soybean meal from china
The government imported around 169,000 tons of edible oil over the last few months
The government has banned export of edible oil for one year to check rising domestic prices and control inflation. The ban will be in place till March 16, 2009.
Technical Outlook Technically Soy Bean October closed below 9 day EMA and 21 day EMA.
Today’s Recommendation NCDEX Soy Bean October sell at 2120-30,SL above 2175, Targets 2077,2045,2009
Courtesy: JRG Wealth Management
