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2010-11 global Wheat crop remains 3rd high on record
Published on: July 30, 2010 at 17:20
MUMBAI (Commodity Online): Global wheat production estimate has been revised to lower by 1.9% for the 2010-11 to 651 million metric tons due to the output losses in parts of Black Sea regions, such as EU and Canada.

Even though the downward estimation, 2010-11 crop output remains third highest on record, said the International Grain Council in its June forecast.

However, the report pointed out that the significant change in the crop output is likely to be overcome by the increased exports from the US.

The IGC data showed that the current prediction is 13 million tons lower than its June estimate of 664 million tons and down by 26 million tons compared with the 2009-10 season estimates, when world wheat production was 677 million tons.

Sharply lower crop expectations from Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine are expected to be offset by increase in U.S. exports, which are expected to be 4 million tons higher than its previous estimate at 60 million tons, the IGC said.

The revision comes as world wheat prices soared further Thursday to fresh two-year highs of EUR193.75 a metric ton for the Paris November contract, fuelled by fears that severe drought around the Black Sea region may slash exports from the key producing region.

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The situation is only getting worse. In the first quarter of the new fiscal year, and at the end of 2010, the Treasury will have to bring to auction at least $730 billion in new debt obligations. This new money will have to come from internal sources, either through additional taxation to relieve at least some burden or inflation to erase any and all of the excess.
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