By Anil Patil
After the establishment of the GATT and other trade agreements, the importance of the study of the universal dispersal, demand - supply and commodity movements have become necessary for investing in commodities.

Fundamental analysis of a commodity includes study of the demand - supply, price movements of the commodity in the national and international markets, crop forecast, weather analysis, Govt. policies etc. even though the price movements of a commodity purely depend up on the demand and supply scenario. For an investment in commodities, we should also follow the seasonal and off seasonal changes of the particular commodity around the globe.



Production season of the same commodity could be different in different producing countries according to the climatic diversification. So the seasonal study is essential in understanding the commodity price movements. This geographical diversification is also helpful for maintaining the universal equilibrium of the specified commodity. If we know the season and off season, we can invest into the commodity for off season. Normally in off season supply shrinks and the commodity offers high price, and in season enough supply results in lower prices.

The knowledge in international seasonal changes would help to understand the peak arrival period of the commodity, by which we can make the necessary arrangements for the investments. The volatility of the commodity could be high in the harvesting period because of the variations in arrivals.


In India, there are two cropping seasons, Khariff and Rabi. The khariff is during the south west monsoon (July- October), when agricultural activities take place and Rabi season is during the winter months. Considering the seasonal outlook of commodities in different countries combined with other fundamental factors would facilitate a better start to investment in commodities.