Wherever you look, you can see evidence of growing momentum in the green energy movement. With interest in alternatives to traditional, non-renewable sources of energy picking up steam around the globe, GreenTech Opportunities' editor and publisher Lawrence Roulston says investors in the sector may realize spectacular rewards. As he tells The Energy Report in this exclusive interview, he particularly favors enterprises on the brink of bringing breakthrough technologies to market—technologies that hold the key to making alternative energy production more economical, more efficient and more reliable.

The Energy Report: Green energy is getting considerable attention in the U.S. and Europe. Judging from what you see in your travels, how much emphasis is the rest of the world placing on green energy?

Lawrence Roulston: It varies from country to country. Europe is years ahead of the U.S. Germany, for example, has developed a world-leading solar power industry. Many countries have set firm targets for green energy production and are working diligently toward meeting them. The result has been a great deal of new economic activity.

TER: What's your perspective on green energy in some of the countries that are expected to grow?

LR: That's a very important topic because there are some misperceptions out there. Take China, for example. Anybody looking at China in particular sees it as a country that makes massive amounts of Electricity by burning coal. While that is certainly the case, it's an entirely different picture looking forward. China has a target of 15% of its total energy to come from renewable sources by 2020 and there is speculation that they're going to boost that to 20%.

That is actually very significant because they're not saying 15% or 20% of the current level of production, but of their total energy production as it will be by 2020. China is one of the few places that have set firm targets to actually increase the proportion that's coming from renewable sources. They're really aiming at a moving target, because the country is growing so fast and energy production is growing so fast.

They are well under way with projects that will produce solar, wind and hydro power. Certainly they won't reduce the amount of Coal they burn any time soon, but at least a portion of their growth and in fact an increasingly large proportion of their energy will come from renewable sources.

TER: What about the other BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) countries? To what extent will their growth offset green energy advances in North America and Europe?

LR: Russia has proposed a target, although it hasn't been formalized yet, of 20% renewable by 2020. A large part of that is going to come from hydroelectric. There's a lot of untapped hydro potential in Russia.

India hasn't set formal percentage targets, but they have a target of generating 25,000 megawatts of power from renewable energy over the next four years, which is a big increase from their current level. That's going to be focused on solar and wind.

Interestingly, Brazil is already the world's largest renewable energy market, with massive hydro projects already in operation and a long-established Ethanol sector. In fact, 40% of Brazil's energy now comes from renewable sources and 85% of their electric power production is renewable. So they're really going to continue to focus on that ethanol and hydro sectors in the near term.

So, even the BRIC countries, which are fast growing and have a reputation of being polluters, are well ahead of the United States' plans or at least at the worst case are going to be matching U.S. targets for renewable.

TER: Who's going to Lead the game in technology advances or adaptation?

LR: As I mentioned earlier, Germany has developed a world-leading solar power industry. In fact, Germany has emerged as a leader in photovoltaics, which came about directly as a result of a government policy to increase production of renewables. They developed feed-in tariffs, which gave a preferential rate to renewable energy and spurred development of the photovoltaic industry. It led Germany to become one of the world's leading experts in photovoltaic technology, and some large production and installation companies have sprung from that effort.

China also is a major player in this sector. One of the largest photovoltaic manufacturing companies is a Chinese company. Right now their biggest market is Europe, but with the initiative that's getting under way in China, it will shift more and more to the domestic market. So big initiatives put forward by the governments in some of these countries have had a massive impact on developing the technologies.

TER: Your GreenTech Opportunities newsletter covers the technological advances worldwide that will provide either operating efficiencies or renewable sources?

LR: Absolutely. We're looking around the world. A lot of good work is happening out there. When the private sector is turned loose on projects like these, it's so much more effective than governments. Provided the price incentives, industry has risen to the challenge, technology is evolving very quickly and some very exciting enhancements are being commercialized right now in the renewable energy sector.

TER: Can you discuss some of those?

LR: Natcore Technology Inc. (TSX.V:NXT) is a tremendous example of what's happening. It has a market value of next to nothing, but if its work is successful, Natcore could be responsible for a breakthrough technology that could revolutionize the whole photovoltaic industry. Natcore was founded by two very accomplished scientists with different approaches who realized that there was huge synergy in combining their technologies. They set up Natcore and took it public to finance their development work.

TER: Could you tell us a little bit about their technology?

LR: A scientist at Rice University, Dr. Andrew Barron, developed a nanotechnology-based method to create thin films of silicon. His approach uses normal temperature and pressure and gets away from the high-temperature methods used now. The advantage is greatly reduced costs of production. In discussion with Dr. Dennis Flood, a world-leading authority in solar cells—who led NASA's programs in advanced photovoltaic systems development—they realized that Dr. Barron's Liquid Phase Deposition process could be used with commercial tandem solar cells as well.

Their technology breakthrough has been validated at the laboratory level, and will reduce costs greatly and improve efficiencies if it can be applied commercially. Present technology captures only a limited range of light wavelengths and therefore only about 15% of the light is converted to electricity. The technology being advanced by Natcore could convert more than 30% of the light to electricity. The doubled efficiency would come from a cell that has a lower production cost than at present.

Natcore is working with a potential partner—an established photovoltaic cell producer—to establish an arrangement whereby the Natcore technology would be employed in a full-scale manufacturing facility within months. The initial application would be for one component of a conventional photo-cell. Research is continuing toward commercialization of the tandem cell application, with a timeframe of a couple of years.

When we first presented this company in GreenTech Opportunities, it almost seemed too good to be true. Over recent weeks, more investors have recognized the credibility of the technology and the people, resulting in a doubling of the share price. The company is still cheap in relation to the potential value if its technology can indeed be applied commercially.

TER: Solar and wind energy options often get dismissed as alternatives because the energy source (sun or wind) is unpredictable. What do you have to say about this?

LR: A grid needs a balance of such intermittent producers of energy with base load and peaking sources. The real problem with wind and solar is that they cost more than gas or coal. As I've indicated, technologies are evolving so that the alternative energy costs will come down over time. The intermittent nature of the energy production factors into the cost of these alternatives, but once wind or solar energy sources are in production, they are effectively free.

GreenTech Opportunities is looking at companies—such as Natcore—that are contributing to reduced capital costs and to higher efficiencies. Solar technologies in particular have enormous scope for improvements.

TER: What role do you envision nuclear power playing in the green energy picture?

LR: If all the new reactors that under construction, planned or proposed are built, we would see about 900 reactors in production over the next couple of decades. Of course, some of the 400 currently in operation will go off-stream. The net result will be an approximate doubling of the nuclear sector by 2030.

TER: Sounds pretty considerable.

LR: Yes, but it will just about keep pace with the projected growth in total energy production. At present nuclear represents a couple of percent of the total energy production, and it will not be much more over the next couple of decades.

TER: You have followed uranium in the past. If we're looking at doubling the reactors but net just keeping pace as a percentage of overall energy production, is there an investment play there?

LR: There isn't much of a play in terms of nuclear producers, because almost all of the production comes from either government-owned entities or small parts of very large companies. On the uranium side, though, there's definitely a play. Doubling the amount of uranium required over a couple of decades—finding and developing that much new production capacity—will be a challenge for the mining industry. Our Resource Opportunities newsletter definitely follows the uranium sector for that reason.

TER: Will uranium return to 2007 levels?

LR: Probably briefly, but I wouldn't count on that as a long-term price point. Even at the current level, though, there's tremendous potential for big profits for companies in the uranium sector that find and develop new production. I think we're going to see a long-term gain from where we are now.

TER: Can you speak to some of the uranium explorers or near-term producers that you're following?

LR: One that's been in the news is Hathor Exploration Limited (TSX-V:HAT), which has made an important discovery in the Athabasca Basin of Northern Saskatchewan, where about 30% of the world's uranium is produced. That's an example of a company that's seen a big increase in its share price over the last year or so, as it's evolved through discovery to outlining a deposit. And there's still a lot of growth in the size of that deposit. The market has yet to price in the full potential of the discovery that was made.

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