Last Updated :
11 March 2010 at 18:10 IST
China wants to lord over gold and forex markets
By David Lew
Gold is making news in China these days. China’s aggressive attempt to build up
Gold reserves has been the talk of the bullion world in the last few months. Especially, ever since India bought 200 tonnes of gold from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last year, there has been speculation that the Chinese central bank would be the next to purchase the remaining IMF gold.
Now that the IMF has announced the sale of 191 tonnes of gold, there has been lots of rumours and speculation running thick around the world that China is all set to buy gold from IMF. China, in fact, is moving very cleverly. The country’s strategy is not just in buying more gold and mopping up the yellow metal reserves. China also wants to ensure that the country defeats the US dollar dominance and the Chinese currency—Yuan—emerges as the next reserve currency of the world.
In order to rule the world in gold and currency markets, China is planning to allow private enterprises to buy gold from the international market. If such an approval comes from the Chinese government, China is going to play the most pivotal role in the global gold and bullion market.
Now, the question every economist is asking is whether China would beat the US in lording over gold reserves and the currency reserves of the world. May be, it is a possibility, if the current Chinese moves are any indication.
In this following article, Russell Hsiao is the editor of China Brief at The Jamestown Foundation, discusses the exact strategy that China is playing with regard to gold reserves and forex reserves in the global market.
"Chinese leaders convening in Beijing for the annual plenary session of the National People's Congress (NPC) - China's ceremonial legislature - this week will, among other things, hammer out a blueprint for the ascendancy of the country's currency, the yuan (or renminbi).
China's 2010 economic blueprint, which was officially unveiled at the plenary's opening, set the country's target growth rate at the proverbial 8%, which is the rate Chinese economists deem sufficient to generate enough domestic demand to make up for dwindling exports to regions such as the United States and Europe.
The 8% growth target has remained the same since 2004 and is also widely seen as politically necessary to create enough jobs to stave off social unrest. While the world's largest economy - the United States - struggles to stem the bleeding of jobs in its ailing economy, its biggest creditor - China - has been quietly increasing its
Gold reserves in an apparent effort to hedge the weakening value of the US dollar and stabilize the value of its massive foreign exchange (forex) reserves.
Depending on the pace and scope of China's forex reserves diversification strategy, this trend will have broad implications for the internationalization of the yuan and China's US$2.27 trillion forex reserves, which are mostly parked in US Treasuries.
One of the key issues that Chinese leaders will have to tackle is whether to let the yuan rise to help restructure the domestic economy and rebalance the global economy. If they decide to allow the yuan to appreciate against the dollar and other currencies, gold may increasingly become an attractive alternative to include within the basket of China's reserves.
As one of the world's largest holders of US Treasury bills - the general estimate is that China owns close to $1 trillion of US Treasury securities - Chinese leaders have become more vocal in expressing their concerns over the United States' fiscal discipline and in calling for an alternative international reserve currency.
Since the outset of 2009, Beijing has taken pains to diversify its monetary risks, which include signing multiple bilateral currency swaps, and pushing for the restructuring of international financial institutions. An instrument less discussed in mainstream analysis but with long-term implications for the viability of the US dollar as the universal reserve currency, can be gleaned from the fact that in 2009 China reportedly bought 454.1 tons of gold from its domestic market, which is equivalent to nearly 50% of the total purchases of 890 tons of gold made by the world's central banks last year.
China increased its gold reserves by 76% in six years (2003) to 1,054 tons in 2009, Xinhua News Agency reported, citing the head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), Hu Xiaolian. China's present gold holdings make up about 1.2% of its total forex reserves, according to Market Watch.
US gold reserves totaled 8,133.5 tons in September 2008, accounting for 76.5% of its total forex reserves. Japan's 765.2 tons accounted for 1.9% of its forex reserves."
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