Pepper
Pepper prices have been affected by the news of weak monsoon progress. Towards weekend, pepper prices gained marginally after witnessing a steady trend from the beginning of the week. However, rains in the past few days have reversed the trend. Pepper imports in May has shown an increase in May. Reports of imports have led to liquidation by growers. Pepper ended weak on Thursday on reports of sufficient rainfall in key growing areas. Internal demand continues to be firm which limited the losses for traders.

Spot prices in the Kochi market rose over 46 rupees to 12,891.95 rupees per 100 kg. NCDEX July Contract traded at Rs 12,812, while August Futures was trading at 12,970 levels. Activity in upcountry markets were were low. Good demand featured from the origin specific buyers for immediate shipments. In the international market, Indian parity continued to remain out priced at $2,700 a tonne (f.o.b). VAsta was quoted at $2600/tonne. Indonesian asta was quoted at $2450 tonne and BASTA at $2400/tonne f.o.b. Black pepper at spot markets likely to trade steady to firm. Pepper production in Indonesia and Brazil in 2009, their carry forward stocks of pepper and demand from the overseas may determine the pepper prices in long term (July end onwards).

Prices in the near term are expected to trade in range of Rs.12650- Rs.13150/qtl with no immediate fundamentals to drive the prices.

Turmeric
Spot prices at the domestic markets were quoted at steady to slightly higher rates due to lower availability of turmeric and delayed advancement of monsoon in the interior parts of India. Farmers in the domestic markets are not ready to sell at lower levels. This may support the prices in the short term. Prices at Nizamabad and Erode are quoting around Rs.5,300/qtl and Rs.5,400/qtl respectively. However, better advancement of monsoon to the interior parts of the nation may cap the upside in the turmeric prices at the domestic market and the impact may be witnessed in futures. Futures over the past few days are quoting in the range of Rs.4,990/qtl – Rs.5,280/qtl. Prices may find initial support at Rs.5,150/qtl and thereon at Rs.5,050.Resistance may be seen initially at Rs.5,270/qtl and thereon towards Rs.5,400/qtl.

Crude Oil
Crude oil which began trading lower at $67 per barrel on Monday picked up momentum thanks to news about Nigerian rebels who blew up a wellhead in a Royal Dutch Shell oilfield. On Friday, crude oil rose to $70 and equity rally on perceptions of recession easing was also supportive.

In the coming days, crude Oil prices are expected to trade on positive note as renewed concerns over unrest in Nigeria. Economic data has shown some signs of improvement and equity markets are also resilient; this can limit the downside in oil prices in the short term. If risk appetite remains strong then we can higher demand for risky assets, leading to rise in demand for commodities like crude oil. Trend in dollar will be important to watch, as strong dollar can cap the upside in oil prices

Crude oil is expected to be steady with a strong bias with support for NYMEX August Crude Oil seen at $69.75/$68.50 level & resistance at $71.40/$72.55 levels. MCX July contract has major support at Rs. 186.80/183.45 & resistance at Rs.195.80/198.30 levels.

Rubber
Rubber market was more or less range-bound to steady although it looked weak in the beginning of the week. NMCE Futures was also steady on sustained rains over the plantation areas towards weekend. Sheet rubber ended firm at Rs 100 a kg amidst extremely dull volumes. There were no revised quotes from major manufacturers. The July futures for RSS 4 ended at Rs 98.16 (98.18), August at Rs 95.14 (95.34) , September at Rs 92.56 (92.98) and October at Rs 91.60 (91.66) a kg on National Multi Commodity Exchange (NMCE). Quotes from Tyre industry continues to be weak.

India's tyre industry will continue to push for a reduction in customs duty on natural rubber, as the duty charged on it is double than the finished product, an industry body said ahead of the union budget. "As in the past we are looking forward to the correction of the inverted duty structure. That is the first and foremost demand," said Rajiv Budhraja, director-general of Automotive Tyre Manufacturers Association (ATMA).

Natural rubber, which makes up 42 percent of the cost of a tyre, attracts customs duty of 20 percent, while duty on the finished product is around 10 percent.

This week the global rubber futures were supported by speculation that China, the world’s largest consumer of the commodity would increase purchases. Car sales in China rose 47 percent in May, the biggest jump since February 2006, helped by tax cuts and government grants. Key Tokyo rubber futures rose 1 percent on Friday, extending gains into a second day as sentiment improved with oil prices recovering to more than $70 per barrel. But gains were limited at around 160 yen per kg by selling from traders aiming to lock in profits from a rally from a three-month low of 150.5 yen hit on Wednesday. TOCOM's then benchmark November contract briefly topped 176 yen in early June, helped by optimism about the global economy. (With inputs from Angel Commodities, Mumbai)