Commodity Online
NEW DELHI: Even when bullion research firms predict a gold run which will see the prices above $1,100 per ounce, there are certain sceptics in India who say that the gold prices will come down to Rs 13,000 per 10 gm level due to the resistance of rupee against dollar.

In the domestic market gold prices came down to Rs 14,000 per 10 gm level this week but several market analysts said the prices will go up.

However, some Indian research firms said the gold prices may rebound to Rs 13,000-level in the domestic markets by June if rupee remains resilient against the US currency.

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Dollar denominated gold gets cheaper when the rupee rises against the greenback.

Gold prices have started falling from the record highs in February. The bearish trend is expected to continue, pulling prices further down to Rs 13,000 per 10 gm by June-end, commodity brokerage Karvy Comtrade said.

Prices may decline to Rs 13,500 per 10 gm by April-end. If rupee remains stronger against the US dollar, then gold rates may fall up to Rs 13,000 per 10 gm by June, Karvi said.

At present, gold prices are hovering between Rs 14,500 and Rs 15,000 per 10 gram. A declining trend in gold prices may spur physical demand and gold imports in the coming days. India annually buys 700 tonnes of gold.

However, festivals may boost the gold demand in India from mid-April.

Kerala, Assam and some other north-eastern states will celebrate Vishu (Bihu) in a big way on April 14, and that is an auspicious occasion for people to start new things or buy gold.

In Kerala, jewellers are expecting a rise in sales after a huge slump in bullion market following the soaring prices and recession. This Vishu, the gold prices have also come down below Rs 15,000 per 10 gm.

Again, Akshaya Tritiya, India’s two biggest gold-buying festivals along with Dhanteras, falls on April 27 when citizens, especially in the south, are expected to buy gold regardless of price, as they believe it will ensure lasting prosperity.

Last year, Akshaya Tritiya sales were at 48.99 tonnes, down 11% from 2007, data from the World Gold Council shows.

Shops in south India will start to advertise for the festival from mid-April, luring customers with discounts or schemes such as free making charges, even free car parking.