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Market turmoil: Stampede of fear into oil, gold
2008-10-11 21:45:00
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By Randolph Buss

Here is my market note on the global financial turmoil:

• Accumulate gold, silver in physical form - coins, bars, truckloads

• HOLD OFF on all equity buying - markets are extremely volatile and VOID of any valuation logic

• As I predicted, we got the rate cuts from EVERYBODY - Central Banks collude to cut

• Deflationary tendencies to be fought with EVERYTHING in the arsenal - may lead to hyperinflationary spiral ; Reflation is now underway

• Confidence in politics, politicians, bankers, paper is lost -- all were "asleep at the wheel"

• US Housing - still further to go

• I reiterate - in this market, single fundamentals have no importance ; macro global considerations are more important

• Commodities equities remain not only oversold but are screaming BUYS - but not yet - my BUY nibblings have been slaughtered - better to wait until at least until more is known about what politicians have in store; I fear nothing good

• Impossible to save with negative rates in most Western countries as inflation is raging ... but off the radar screen ; the only thing holding value has been gold.

• Winter is approaching - how will the total lack of sunspots affect ?

• BEAR Market : in force ; DAX 5.700 , DOW 10.500 next stops ; SPOT ON but never expected it this soon - possible target of DOW 8.000 now VERY CLOSE as I had said

• Accumulate : Swiss Francs

• The Central Banks have lost control thus far - this weekend I expect more drastic steps to be announced

• Current Outlook : weakness into 2009 ; commodity prices likely to be suppressed from equity outlook but may be trumped by stampede of FEAR into oil, gold, etc. Not knowable but things are looking like a complete flight to safety - cash + gold -- forget useless bonds right now.

• Flight to Safety : short term I see no credible asset class for protection ; cash hold ; accumulate hard assets on all pullbacks especially gold & silver.

Courtesy: www.dinl.net
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