By Jon Nadler
Gold continued on Tuesday's trend towards the lows ($740.75) of September 11 and dropped as much as $23 to $746 prior to the opening of today's NY session. Another sizeable gain in the dollar brought it to 85.60 on the index, while black gold lost nearly $3 in value to decisively breach the $70 mark. OPEC might as well cut supplies, it might not be able to cut as much as the overall drop in global demand is pointing towards.
New York spot dealings opened the mid-week session off by $20 at $750.00, achieving another objective we alluded to, several days ago. While the decline is a perfect Diwali present to India, it still raises the possibility that the metal is becoming a "reverse hedge" in a world of crumbling values. Yes, bullion may fall further (targets include $732, $675, and $640 at this time), but it might lose less than that overpriced fixer-upper, or the sickly-looking basket of stocks the brokers are trying to keep one from tossing away. Silver fell 22 cents to $9.81 giving rise to another bargain-hunting opportunity. As for bargain-basement prices, look over to platinum and palladium, as they wear price tags of $852 (down $41) and $175 (off $6) on the dire news that auto sales have not looked this grim on over a quarter century.
Gold may even rise, following whatever target the current slump takes it to, trying for $1K once again over the next 6 to 18 months - this, according to our friend Paul Walker over at GFMS in London. Paul bases his expectations of the four-digit achievement on a decoupling from the commodity complex based on its monetary attributes - some of which have come under serious testing of late. But, as always, caveat emptor - or speculator, as the case may be.
Overnight markets experienced more of the same: the same surging US dollar, declining crude, pessimistic equities, and declining commodities. The list of slumping currencies still headlines the ruble, the real, and the won (soon to be renamed the rubble, the unreal, and the lost). Moreover, the "Iceland Syndrome" appears to be spreading - this time, apparently starting to affect my parents' old stomping ground, Hungary. In a desperate attempt to stem a flight from the forint, the Magyar central bank raised rates to 11.5% today. Contrasting that move, reasonable expectations that the European central banks will soon cut rates to avoid the (likely) unavoidable.
Then, there is Argentina. Safe-haven for survivalist newsletter vendors, or a once-again irrelevant, defaulted country? The real Sarah Palin, President Cristina F. de Kirchner ordered the seizure of nearly $30 billion of private pension funds. Muy macho. Do cry for me, Argentina. The Brit pound hit a five-year low against the greenback and the euro broke down to $1.28. And now, for something completely different: a $1.60 pound, and a $1.00 euro? Based on any and/or all of the above, who would expect stock markets to rise and commodities to be in demand? Well, not the Nikkei, which fell 631 points. Not the FTSE, or the Swiss SMI, either. Possibly the only welcome decline overnight was that in the LIBOR. It fell to 2004 levels as the Fed kept the dollar firehoses fully swollen.
As these trying times roll on, money advisers are not short on advice. The only one we can offer you, is to ensure that your core gold position of 10% to perhaps 15% of your wealth pie is in place. That place, is the foundation of your financial house. Reach for it only you must. Otherwise, leave it to your heirs. Let's see what Marketwatch's Chuck Jaffe has to offer as regards investing mantras for these troubling days:
"With the stock market flip-flopping and interchanging hope and despair on almost a daily basis, investors would be a lot better off looking inward, at their own investment portfolio and personal financial strategy, than at the broad market.
That's because what matters most is your personal strategy and your comfort with it. In all market conditions, there is always someone crowing about what they have done perfectly, but few who step up to acknowledge their mistakes. Meanwhile, plenty of people are quietly doing what is right by the strategy they are dedicated to.
With that in mind, here are the five things investors of all stripes should be able to say about their financial plan or their investment portfolio, regardless of the day-to-day action in the market. If you can say this about your own situation, chances are you are well-positioned to ride out the current storm.
1. My finances are not keeping me awake at night
Years ago, Bob Bright of Bright Trading, one of the nation's largest trading firms, told me that in spite of the frenetic pace a day-trader keeps when the market is open, they should be able to sleep as well as any buy-and-hold investor because they have absolute confidence in the strategy they are pursuing.
If you have no clear plan or insufficient conviction in your strategy, you are likely to lose sleep second-guessing yourself.
The buy-and-hold, invest-when-the-market-looks-against-you crowd keeps the faith by saying that every bear market has been followed by a bull market that, in time, has overcome the downturn. And the stay-on-the-sidelines crowd gets its faith by saying "I'd rather be out, and safe, than losing money and waiting -- perhaps a long time -- for a comeback."
It's not a competition; both styles can be right in time. Just be sure that wherever you fall on the spectrum -- whether at the extremes or somewhere in between -you aren't going to suffer cold night sweats that eventually force you to change strategies at what might be the worst time.
2. My financial goals are still in reach Many workers have seen their 401(k) accounts shrivel to something more akin to a 101(k), but goals are less about the dollars and more about what the money is supposed to achieve.
If a portfolio is properly constructed -- balancing short-term needs with long-term goals and realistic time horizons -- an investor should not go through a period where a downturn dashes their hopes and aspirations. It may make the mountain more difficult to climb, but proper financial plans factor in bear markets, they don't get killed by them.
"People are more panicked than they need to be," says Judy Shine of Shine Investment Advisory Services in Englewood, Colo. "There's no denying the problems, but the market has seen downturns before and investors recovered. ... You may have visions that you could afford retirement a few weeks ago and now you can't, but if you have lived long enough, you have had those visions before. You had them in 1987 or 1991, and then after the tech bubble, and people adjusted each time. Your future is still going to get here, and it's not going to be as bad as it feels right now."
3. I have enough cash, emergency funds or available credit to meet my needs
Maybe you are putting more of your money into traditional short-term vehicles, changing your asset allocation to become more conservative with money that might be needed in the next five years, or paying down debt. Having access to money that allows you to maintain your financial plan without being derailed by some disaster is essential.
Again, there is no one right way. Some people prefer to have as much invested as possible, using available credit cards as their emergency reserve. That strategy works, so long as credit grantors haven't trimmed credit limits or cut off your line of credit -- which has been increasingly common during the current credit squeeze.
Others will keep as much of their short-term needs liquid as possible, but will settle for poor yields. If you pulled money out of the market and stuck it into a money-market fund paying 0.2%, you need to manage the cash better so that you can at least get some help in growing your reserves.
Continued...