By Troy Clarke Electric vehicles are a topic of great importance to the future of GM … and to the future of our country for that matter..
Over the last day and half, you’ve heard a number of interesting perspectives about how to address energy independence and climate change … and there are some great vehicles on display here that contribute to the solution to those issues.
I’d like to talk about General Motors’ vision … and why we are also inspired to help solve what we perceive to be the very real, very challenging environmental matters facing our country and our industry.
These issues are, by their very nature, global in scope. So, let’s begin with an assessment of the global auto industry. Despite the current challenges of the auto industry in the United States … globally, our industry is in the midst of tremendous growth.
There are about 820 million vehicles in the world today; roughly 12 percent of the world’s population enjoys the benefits of automobile ownership and driving. Automobile ownership and use is a rough indicator of what some call middle class economic status. With rapid growth in many regions of the world, there are more people achieving this status than at any time in history, and the personal freedom that autos provide is highly valued.
As such, we expect that at least 15 percent of the world’s population will own a vehicle by 2020 – that’s a billion vehicles. This expansion is being fueled by growth in emerging markets like China and India.
As you’ve already discussed, this growth has created serious concerns about the automobile’s almost exclusive dependence on petroleum. This increasingly creates issues with supply and availability, sustainable growth, climate change, and even national security.
As we look at this picture today and consider the future of the automobile, one fact stands out above all others… going forward, we can no longer rely primarily on oil to supply the world’s automotive energy requirements. GM believes that the long-term solution involves a march toward the electrification of the automobile. The debate has shifted from “if” this would happen to “when.” We believe there are a number of steps along the way, and I’d like to share some of our thoughts with you.
Around the globe, there are many very promising solutions to the energy and environmental challenges we face. General Motors is working hard on most of them… things like improved diesel technology, advanced biofuels, and broad-scale application of hybrid technology.
Parallel hybrid automotive powertrains are an important step on the journey. They are a natural extension of our current mechanical-electrical propulsion paradigm. They are, in fact, limited range electrical powertrains that replaces or help a conventional internal combustion engine at certain parts of the driving cycle. They contribute most fuel savings during low speed city driving conditions.
GM has five hybrid vehicles on the road today, and will offer eight hybrid models by the end of this year. And by 2012, we will have more than 20 hybrid vehicles available for consumers, in cars, crossovers, pickup trucks and SUVs.
A year ago, I would have presented this data in anticipation of a lot of ooooh’s and ahhhhh’s. Today, I think we recognize hybrid technology not as an end to our technical journey, but as a beginning … albeit, an important beginning. The electric powertrain allows us to develop technology like batteries and power controls. Hybrids allow us to develop standards, engineering methods and tools, and real world validation models.
Last but not least, they allow us to develop marketing, sales and service capabilities to assure adequate levels of customer satisfaction. Most importantly, we can recalibrate our engineering human resources from a world of mechanical motion to a world of electrical motion. Think of the tens of thousands of engineering and technical people at GM who grew up and learned their trade on the internal combustion engine. They are now enthused to participate in a once in a lifetime transition of our industry.
Our hybrid efforts began in earnest when we started producing hybrid systems for electric buses. City transit buses were the exact right place to start. Think about it from our perspective. City driving cycles.
Thousands of stops and starts per day. High up time and reliability requirements. And the space to package first generation components. This was a great opportunity to demonstrate big fuel savings potential … and that we did. Over the past five years, we’ve helped save three million gallons of fuel, and 30,000 metric tons of CO2 emissions.
We’ve applied the lessons learned from the two-mode hybrid system used in the transit buses, and scaled it down for use in full-size utilities and pickups. In fact, we’ve already introduced the Chevy Tahoe Hybrid and the GMC Yukon Hybrid, and will soon launch a hybrid version of the Cadillac Escalade. Those are vehicles that get the city fuel economy of a four-cylinder Toyota Camry, but in a full-size SUV package.
And, in the future, we intend to produce the Saturn VUE Plug-In Hybrid. It will feature an advanced lithium-ion battery, and potentially twice the fuel economy of any SUV on the road today. In fact, I am very pleased that the DOE just announced this compact SUV is being considered for a funding opportunity. We truly appreciate it.
But, again, I remind you these are fuel-powered vehicles that get a helping hand from an electric propulsion system.
The technology that we are here to talk about today… and one that GM is working very hard to bring to market… is electrically driven vehicles. Despite movie titles to the contrary, I can say with absolute certainty the electric car is not dead at GM. In fact, we are building on our capabilities to significantly expand our commitment to electrically-driven vehicles … and are now in the midst of a radical transformation.
We’re moving from a company that, for 100 years, has been based on mechanically driven automobiles, to one that will eventually be based on electricity. This is a big deal for us and for consumers around the world.
This next step represents the transition to a true electrically driven vehicle … one that we’re working hard to bring to market. Our efforts in this area have received a good deal of attention and I think are of significant interest to you here today… particularly our Chevrolet Volt.
The Volt concept, which is on display out in front of the hotel, is the first demonstration of our new family of electrically driven propulsion systems that we call E-Flex.
The “E” in E-Flex stands for “electric,” because all E-Flex vehicles will be driven by electricity… and E-Flex is “flexible,” because it is easily reconfigured to produce electricity from different sources.
When running off the battery… which customers can plug into a standard electrical outlet… the Volt operates as a traditional battery-electric vehicle, with a driving range of about 40 miles.
And when you consider that three-quarters of American drivers travel less than 40 miles in their daily commute … clearly, a fleets of Volts can have a huge impact on America’s petroleum dependence.
And if the driver of a Volt needs to go beyond 40 miles, the engine kicks in to supply the electricity to recharge the battery and keep the vehicle moving. This allows the vehicle to drive as much as 400 additional miles, while getting significantly better fuel economy than any other car on the market today.
It’s easy to see why we are so excited about this technology – a vehicle with the electric range of the Volt would have quite an impact on both petroleum use and tailpipe emissions.
And the best part is … an extended range EV like the Volt can do this while saving its owner a lot of money in operating expenses.
A conventional vehicle that gets around 30 miles per gallon costs about 13 cents per mile to operate. But, when you do the math to convert a kilowatt hour to cost per mile, an extended range electric vehicle like the Volt will cost about 2 cents a mile for electricity from the grid. So, it’s not going to be difficult for customers to see the advantage in their pocketbooks.
The key to getting the Volt on the road is advanced lithium-ion battery technology.
For all the potential that lithium-ion batteries offer, there is a tremendous amount of confusion associated with them. One of the most prevalent misconceptions is that all lithium-ion batteries, and all battery chemistries, are alike.
In fact, lithium-ion is a family of over 25 chemistries – all with different capabilities and performance features. The power and energy requirements for an automotive battery application differ significantly from that of the batteries used for consumer electronics such as computers, cell phones and Blackberrys.
In addition, our performance and durability requirements – 10 years of life, 150,000 miles in a very rugged and hostile environment – are unique to automotive applications and considerably more stringent than those applied to consumer goods.
Our internal tests have shown that individual lithium ion cells, scaled-up to a large pack level, will deliver the required power and range.
We’ve run prototype packs through numerous tests since last fall… including some pretty severe ones… and the results to date are quite encouraging. We’ve successfully driven test mules with the lithium-ion battery on our tests tracks, and we’ll get even more rigorous with testing this summer.
It’s important to note that the vehicle side of the Volt program is being engineered in parallel with battery development.
Typically, we develop new technology – like the battery and propulsion systems – well before we kick-off a production-vehicle program. To be honest, because of this parallel path, this product program presents a great deal of risk for us. But, with risk comes potential reward. We believe our E-Flex system can greatly reduce oil consumption and CO2 emissions, so we’re developing the Volt with all the urgency we can muster.
Just last week, the GM Board of Directors approved production funding for the Chevy Volt. What this means is that the GM management and Board believe the technical goals of the Volt are not only achievable, but achievable by 2010, which is the goal date we had set for get the Volt into the Chevrolet showrooms.
Again, the concept version of the Volt is on display here at the conference … so I hope you can take time to check it out. I would, however, be remiss if I didn’t point out that the appearance of the production model will change somewhat. That’s mainly due to the fact that our designers and engineers have been working to optimize the aerodynamics of the Volt as part of the quest to make this breakthrough concept car a production reality.
As we move to production, one of my roles is to create a successful business model that seizes on the consumer energy for the concept car to build a product and brand that people can’t wait to own.
Because, at the end of the day, we want the Chevy Volt to be a commercial success … a volume product. Yes, we want to make an environmental technology statement. But, we also want a car that sells and that people aspire to own.
We believe people will want a Chevrolet Volt is because it’s a car that says so much about their commitment to the environment and their love of advanced technology. Or, because it’s a car that looks cool … or could potentially avoid ever costing them money at the gas pump. Whatever their reasons, we want consumers to know that purchasing a Volt is a smart choice … one they can feel good about.
And, isn’t that why people buy vehicles? Because unlike many other consumer products, your car says something about who you are.
And, we’re doing research now on who our Volt customers are likely to be, and what their expectations are for an extended range electric vehicle. And, we’re taking those needs into account as we develop the vehicle. For example, most consumers wouldn’t sacrifice a radio for more electric range… so neither will we. We’re actually working with our supplier to find ways to lower the amount of electricity the Volt’s radio will use. We’re creating a vehicle and a business model that will work … and we want to make as few sacrifices as possible, because in the long run, we believe it will lead to even more enthusiasm for the Volt.
Then, we need to build on our positive electric vehicle momentum so that the excitement and pride around the Volt transcends the vehicle, to impact the Chevrolet brand … and eventually impacts the entire company. We want consumers to see the Volt as the game changer it is not only for our business, but for the way the world drives. Once they do, we can build on that success with other creative E-Flex models – but one step at a time.
Another step in the journey to electrify the automobile will be fuel cell vehicles. Now, a lot of people are confused by this … but yes, a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle is an electric vehicle. It drives on electricity that is created by the fuel cell. In fact, electricity and hydrogen are actually interchangeable, and a fuel cell is, in some ways, like a battery that stores electricity in the form of hydrogen.
We have begun engineering of a fuel cell variant of the E-Flex system. Built on the same architecture and using many of the same components, this version couples our next generation fuel cell system with a smaller lithium-ion battery to provide up to 300 miles of petroleum- and emissions-free electric driving range.
And, right now, we’re in the process of putting this next generation fuel cell technology on the street with our Chevy Equinox compact SUVs. The Equinox Fuel Cell has a 150 mile range, refuels in 5 to 8 minutes, and is a full-fledged electrically-driven zero emissions vehicle.
In January, we began by delivering more than 100 of these vehicles to customers in California and the East Coast, including here in Washington DC. Just last month, we handed two DC area families the keys to test vehicles. And two weeks ago, the Department of Energy took delivery of another test vehicle for employees here in Washington to use and evaluate in its fleet.
The findings of this massive test drive will help us define our product and market introduction plans for production fuel cell electric vehicles.
As I said, at GM, we believe that electrically driven vehicles are the best long-term solution for addressing society’s energy and environmental concerns. At the same time, we’re working on a range of real-world, real-time technologies that will make a difference… in some cases, a tremendous difference… in promoting energy security at home, and addressing climate change globally.
But to do this, it’s also important that we have an honest conversation about what’s required to bring these technologies to market in volume … and that’s where I’d like to conclude.
We, as automakers, need to take the lead … no question… and we are … by developing responsive, relevant technologies and then driving down their costs. We understand this. But there are important roles for others, as well.
For example, plug-in vehicles must be seamlessly integrated with the capabilities of the utilities companies and the power grid. Regulatory agencies must be active in the development of guidelines to ensure wide-spread availability of safe, efficient vehicles.
The public must be educated to appreciate the benefits of plug-in technology.
And, to get to the theme of this conference … what is the role for Washington? We believe government has a significant role to play. One of the things that government can do … and, I’d argue, one of the things that government must do to really promote energy independence for our nation … is proactively support the development of battery technology.
Our nation must fund a major effort to strengthen domestic advanced battery capabilities. Advanced lithium-ion batteries are a key enabler to a number of advanced vehicle technologies, including extended range electric vehicles and plug-in electric vehicles. Government could help by increasing R&D funding for this vital area, while supporting domestic manufacturing of advanced batteries.
We also really like David Sandalow’s idea of a battery guarantee corporation to address some of the sizable, early risks of putting cutting edge battery technology into production vehicles. We hope this is something Congress will consider supporting.
Speaking of batteries, I also believe there is a role for our educational institutions. We need to ensure that our country develops top-notch engineers and scientists, skilled in battery and electronics development. This is a critical skill set that General Motors is seeking now … and will be for the foreseeable future.
In the same regard, we’ll also need trained technicians to service these new batteries and electric vehicle systems. It will not only help advance the development and acceptance of new technology, but also with new career opportunities for Americans.
We also can’t drop the ball on fuel cells, and government support is still needed to expand development and demonstration of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Tremendous progress has been – and continues to be – made on fulfilling the promise of hydrogen powered vehicles. The U.S. needs to stay the course on the President’s hydrogen program, and begin to prepare for the 2010 to 2015 transition to market phase.
Finally, there should be incentives for consumers to adopt these exciting new technologies in a big way. Well-crafted tax incentives can accelerate adoption of new technologies and strengthen domestic manufacturing.
We in the industry are ready to step up and do our part. We want to work with others – the government, universities, national labs – to make a difference. Together, we can transform automotive transportation as we know it, and get our nation, and the world, past oil dependence and on the road to significantly reduced greenhouse gas emissions … a future that is electric.
(Mr Clarke is President, General Motors North America, Washington, D.C. Remarks made at Brookings Institution/Google.org Plug-In Electric Vehicle Conference June 12, 2008)
