By Jon Nadler
A fresh rise in crude oil to a new record of above $143 supplied the fuel for gold to test the previous mid-May $935 resistance level and bring it to within $10 of getting back on track for a possible recapture of the four-digit target once again.

Although the dollar was steady and then rose to near 72.40 overnight and early today, the expectation that the ECB will raise its rates on the 3rd coupled with reports of a rise in US covert activities in Iran gave speculators enough ammunition to keep gunning oil's engine and try to race for new records. The dominant story of the first half of 2008 is crude oil's epic leap - by a long shot. The commodity casts a huge shadow on practically everything else in the markets. At last check, the barrel of dino juice was quoted at $142.71 up $2.50 on the day.

New York spot gold opened the last trading session of the month and the quarter with a $4.60 gain quoted at $931.40 per ounce as participants kept an eye on Iran-Israel tensions and the (still) soaring price of black gold. Today's economic calendar offers little in the way of market-moving data, thus the focus remains on oil and currency movements and the (thus far) declining stock market futures.

Quarter-end book-squaring and window-dressing activities may induce an additional amount of volatility into today's action yet. Silver was ahead by 15 cents this morning, quoted at $17.66 while platinum added $21 to $2066 and palladium lost $1 at $465 per ounce. Tomorrow's auto sales data may dampen the noble metals complex to a degree.

Amid predictions that the fireworks are just getting started and that the second half of this year may yet prove to be the frosting on the commodities' seven year old birthday cake, a number of factors have slowly emerged that could put the party on hold, or worse, send its sated guests towards the exit doors.

Bloomberg's tireless London-based Claudia Carpenter brings us a different perspective than what you might read in your average hard money survivalist newsletter. You may wish to balance your knowledge base with the following observations:

"Commodities are heading for their best first half in 35 years. The next six months may not be as rewarding because record prices for oil, copper and a dozen other raw materials may crimp consumption and encourage growth in supply. The 19 commodities in the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index jumped 29 percent this year, the most since 1973. High costs are slowing the pace of demand for gasoline in the U.S., and gold purchases in India, the biggest buyer, plunged 50 percent from a year earlier. Producers are expanding supplies of wheat in the U.S. and steel in China.

``We're near some kind of reckoning'' in commodities, said Michael Aronstein, president of Marketfield Asset Management in New York, who returned 15 percent a year in the 1990s managing commodity investments. ``I've probably been positive for seven years and this is the first time I think there could be really a dramatic secular reversal, that it's not just a pullback.''

High energy costs will deter consumers and reduce second- half prices, after oil doubled in the past year to a record $142.99 a barrel June 27, said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd.

In the U.S., the world's largest energy user, the number of travelers over the Fourth of July holiday will drop for the first time this decade, after gasoline rose above $4 a gallon, motoring group AAA said June 26. Surging jet-fuel costs led to the failure of at least a dozen airlines in the past six months, grounding planes.