Commodity Online
CHICAGO: Lanworth's forecasts of constrained soybean supply and extensive corn plantings, issued consistently since March and updated recently, are supported by June Acreage report from USDA. In a shock to the grain and oilseed markets, the USDA aligned itself with Lanworth's estimates, which have stood boldly apart from analyst expectations, according to a press release.

Lanworth's estimate of a large, 85+ million acre corn crop, nearly 1 million acres above the average trade estimate, prepared the market for the USDA's surprise announcement of 87 million planted acres that triggered this morning's abrupt sell-off.
Lanworth also indicated that soybean plantings would be significantly below market expectations of 78.3 million acres. The USDA's current position of 77.5 million planted acres supports Lanworth's estimate of 75.7 million acres. The USDA's estimates may be revised downwards over the course of the year.
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Lanworth's spring wheat estimate of 13.6 million acres, significantly higher than the upper range of analyst expectations, was supported by the USDA's estimate of 13.8 million acres. Today's USDA report also raised its winter wheat planting estimates, confirming Lanworth's long-held position of extensive winter wheat seeding.

"The market is now watching to see if the 3.5 million acre increase in the total area planted to corn and soybeans forecasted by the USDA actually materializes over the course of the year," said Nicholas Kouchoukos, the vice president of information services. "With late planting decisions still to be made on a half-million acres, USDA June report sets the stage for our important yield forecasts through the growing and harvest season as the USDA settles on a final production number in January."

With its third consecutive year of delivering effective agricultural intelligence ahead of USDA, Lanworth's ability to measure crops accurately and rapidly by generating satellite-enabled computer models is softening the market impact of USDA's periodic planting and production reports. The reports published throughout the growing season provide a stable foundation for the production and supply estimates used by commodities investors and risk managers as they trade on the agricultural commodities market, the press releae added.

Unlike its competitors, Lanworth's reports are not based on surveys of farmers, the company claimed. The company uses three elements to arrive at its projections: real-time satellite feeds delivered twice daily, extensive field sampling, and sophisticated computer models of soil conditions, farming practices, weather and many other factors. Lanworth was the first to provide accurate impact assessments of the 2008 Midwest floods and the 2009 Kansas and Oklahoma freeze. (Courtesy: PRNewswire)