Commodity Online The World Energy Outlook 2008 was released last week and it contains updated studies and forecast from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
One of their conclusions is that six new Saudi-Arabias is required until 2030, corresponding to 64 million barrels per day, in order to meet demand and counter decline. Also they see increasing average decline rates of world oil production, mostly due to a switch to smaller fields as the old giants mature.
Following are the major highlights from the World Energy Outlook:
World energy demand expands by 45% between now and 2030 –an average rate of increase of 1.6% per year –with coal accounting for more than a third of the overall rise.
The increase in China’s energy demand to 2030 –the result of its sheer market size & stronger economic growth prospects –dwarfs that of all other countries & regions.
All of the growth in global oil demand comes from non-OECD, with China contributing 43%, the Middle East 20% and other emerging Asian economies most of the rest.
Cumulative investment in energy-supply infrastructure of $26.3 trillion is needed, but the credit squeeze could delay spending –especially in the power sector.
Most of the incremental oil & gas comes from national companies in non-OECD countries, resulting in major structural changes in the energy industry & increased imports in the OECD.
The production-weighted average decline rate worldwide is projected to rise from 6.7% in 2007 to 8.6% in 2030 as productions shifts to smaller oilfields, which tend to decline quicker.
Production reaches 104 mb/d in 2030, requiring 64 mb/d of gross capacity additions –six times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia –to meet demand growth & counter decline.
Close to 80% of the projected increase in output of both oil & gas comes from national companies –on the assumption that investment is forthcoming.
97% of the projected increase in emissions between now & 2030 comes from non-OECD countries –three-quarters from China, India & the Middle East alone.
While technological progress is required to achieve some emissions reductions, increased deployment of existing low-carbon technologies accounts for most of the CO2savings.
While energy-related CO2will continue to dominate, there is strong potential to reduce other emissions through improved efficiency, better farm management & reduced gas flaring.
