LONDON (Commodity Online): Precious metals, paced by gold breaking $2,000 an ounce by the third quarter, should lead the commodity sector in 2012 with 20% gains by the end of the second quarter and up 21% for the entire year, said Barclays Capital in a research note.
According to Barclays, after rising to $2,000 by the third quarter, gold likely will back off slightly. Gold will still end higher year-over-year. Silver should have a similar trajectory, up in the first and second quarter, peaking in the third quarter. However, they see silver ending 2012 below levels recording in the fourth quarter of 2011.
“Gold’s larger share in the S&PGSCI weighting means the double-digit growth expected for this year is a larger driver of overall returns.” Barclays added.
Commodities have rallied stoutly in January, but they might be vulnerable to a setback near-term. As a whole, however, the main commodity indexes should rise in 2012 about 10% as China is able bring its economy down to a soft landing, the U.S. will continue to grow and worries over European sovereign debt will ease, Barclays concluded.
