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Last Updated : 29 October 2009 at 21:45 IST
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'Believe in gold. But gold is not a religion'

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We close today with an assortment of Dr. Doom Roubini opinions. Warning; contains statements deemed by some to be heretical in nature, and/or "shilling" for Wall Street. If easily offended, do not read on. The news and content is out there, on Bloomberg and elsewhere. Ignoring it is fine, but does present some risks. Material ones, that is.

"Now that Nouriel Roubini has dispensed with the current slump, it's time to move on to the next global calamity. The New York University professor, nicknamed Dr. Doom for his famously grim but accurate prediction of the financial meltdown that flattened economies around the world, said Thursday the U.S. recession appears to be over. But he warned that a new asset bubble fuelled by rock-bottom interest rates and a falling U.S. dollar could trigger another financial disaster.

“This asset bubble is totally inconsistent with a weaker recovery of economic and financial fundamentals,” Dr. Roubini told a conference in Cape Town, South Africa, by satellite, reported by Bloomberg News. “The risk is that we are planting the seeds of the next financial crisis.”

The culprit: Investors around the world borrowing cheap US dollars and using them to snap up equities, corporate bonds, commodities and other assets, driving up prices far beyond what could be justified by economic fundamentals or growth prospects. Nouriel Roubini believes that a "wall of liquidity" is chasing all kinds of assets, and once the economy disappoints, it will all come crashing down.

(He may have nailed that one, as the world has now seen an eight month-long, 68% rally in global stocks and a Bloomberg poll finds investors sensing a rout. Commodities have rallied hand-in-hand with equities, as you know.)

Yet for Dr. Doom, gold isn't the answer. According to him, despite the temporarily asset bubbles right now, we're still in a deflationary world and we'll realize it soon enough once growth stagnates and all kinds of inflated asset categories come falling down. Index Universe has Dr. Roubini saying: "I don’t believe in gold. Gold can go up for only two reasons. [One is] inflation, and we are in a world where there are massive amounts of deflation because of a glut of capacity, and demand is weak, and there’s slack in the labor markets with unemployment peeking above 10 percent in all the advanced economies. So there’s no inflation, and there’s not going to be for the time being."

"The only other case in which gold can go higher with deflation is if you have Armageddon, if you have another depression. But we’ve avoided that tail risk as well. So all the gold bugs who say gold is going to go to $1,500, $2,000, they’re just speaking nonsense. Without inflation, or without a depression, there’s nowhere for gold to go. Yeah, it can go above $1,000, but it can’t move up 20-30 percent unless we end up in a world of inflation or another depression. I don’t see either of those being likely for the time being. Maybe three or four years from now, yes. But not anytime soon."

Well, we do believe in gold. Not gold as a religion. Gold as that must-have life insurance policy for your other assets. Gold as the core ten percent 'rainy-day' holding that is bought/kept not for profit, but for a better night's sleep. Gold as a liability-free vehicle that offers liquidity, diversification, and enhanced portfolio architecture.

In that context, we can ask the question: "Got Gold?"

But, also, the "other" question: "Got noise-canceling headphones to drown out the [moonshot, manipulation, end-of-the-world, etc.] screaming coming from the rooftops?"

Jon Nadler is Senior Analyst, Kitco Metals Inc.
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NCDEX GARSEDJDRJUL12 20 July 2012 contract was trading at Rs 0 . What's your view on it?
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