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By Col. Ajay
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PARIS (Commodity Online): BNP Paribas S.A. (Euronext: BNP) on Wednesday trimmed its 2012 and 2013 forecasts for base metals after a decline in prices in the second quarter.
-- BNP Paribas’s trimmed its 2012 forecasts for aluminium from $2,270 to $2,085 per tonne, and its 2013 forecast from $2,575 to $2,450 a tonne.
--Lead averaging $2,055/tonne in 2012, down 5.9% on its previous forecast, and $2,550/tonne next year, down 3.8%.
--Copper forecasts lowered by $525 to $8,100 per tonne this year, and for 2013 by $125 to $8,000 per tonne.
--Tin forecasts trimmed by 10.2% to $22,125/tonne this year, and for 2013 by 3.7% to $26,000/tonne.
--Zinc forecasts lowered by 4.1% to $1,985/tonne this year and a 2013 price of $2,350/tonne, down 1.1%.
--It cut its 2012 nickel forecast by 6.4% to $18,250/tonne and its 2013 nickel outlook by 4.3% to $17,900/tonne.
The French bank lowered its forecast mainly due to weakness across risk assets during the eurozone crisis, a stronger U.S. dollar and an apparent slowing of China’s economy and imports.
As per senior metals strategist Stephen Briggs, “We suggested in a note of mid-March that base metal prices would see a correction in Q2 this year. But just as the recovery of Q1 was greater than we had expected, so too has been the recent retreat.”
He continued that, “Were the global economic outlook to deteriorate sharply, copper would be the most exposed base metal, not because its fundamentals are relatively poor but because, uniquely, its price is still far above production costs."
“Nickel prices should continue to struggle for the remainder of this year and aluminum's progress should be relatively muted, with the metal likely to remain less volatile than other metals in the complex,” Briggs stated.
Still, BNP continues to forecast that global base metals demand will rise 4% to 5% in 2012 and risks are skewed to the downside.
Banque Nationale de Paris Paribas (BNP Paribas) was the world’s biggest bank, as measured by total assets of $2.670 trillion in 2011 and Eurozone's largest bank by deposits.
