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A bullish outlook for gold next year, but nevertheless anticipates further strength in the U.S. dollar going into the New Year may be the next test for the yellow metal. Unlike previous periods of risk aversion that o..

10 Dec 2011

LONDON (Commodity Online): A bullish outlook for gold next year, but nevertheless anticipates further strength in the U.S. dollar going into the New Year may be the next test for the yellow metal. Unlike previous periods of risk aversion that occurred in 2009 and 2010, this time U.S. dollar strength is not being accompanied by strong inflows into physically backed gold ETFs, said Deutsche Bank in its final weekly commodities report of 2011.

According to bank, liquidation in Comex gold over the past couple of months appears to be drawing to a close, although currency trends could trigger yet another round of speculative liquidation. Overall, gold has outperformed other precious metals in recent months.

Looking ahead, Deutsche Bank wrote: “We expect the conditions that have driven gold returns higher over the past 11 years will persist into 2012, namely negative real interest rates, a high U.S. equity risk premium and central-bank buying.”

The bank is forecasting $1,750 gold in the first quarter of 2012, $1,850 in the second quarter, then $2,000 in the third and fourth quarters. For silver, Deutsche Bank is forecasting $37 in the first quarter, $39 in the second and $44 in the third and fourth quarters.


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