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A rebound in LME Copper is already visible and this is also reflected in copper futures at India’s Multi Commodity Exchange,” according to Sreekumar Raghavan, Chief Commodity Strategist at Commodity Online..

15 Nov 2012

LONDON/MUMBAI (Commodity Online): Base metals complex may gain support for the medium term as China data showed that manufacturing activity has picked up in October, inflation has slowed and retail sales figures are also positive.

The leadership change in China that brings Xi Jinping, the President in waiting to head the Seven member Politibur of Communist Party of China brings hope of the emerging nation scaling higher in economic growth and development. Jin Ping said that the party will not rest on its laurels even as it has reason to take pride in the nation’s world renowned achievements so far.

Although China racked up annual GDP growth of 7.4 percent in the third quarter of 2012, that was its slowest pace since the depths of the financial crisis in the first quarter of 2009.

China recently gave the green light to 60 infrastructure projects, including plans to build highways, ports and airport runways, worth more than $150 billion, as it looks to energise its economy. Many of the projects will be metals intensive, Reuters reported.

The copper-led base metals complex looks set for a rebound for the rest of 2012 and mid-2013 when most of the constituent commodities are set to rally.

“A rebound in LME Copper is already visible and this is also reflected in copper futures at India’s Multi Commodity Exchange,” according to Sreekumar Raghavan, Chief Commodity Strategist at Commodity Online although weak manufacturing data for September in India could hamper sharp gains in metals complex.

Bloomberg who rates Justin Smirk of Westpac Banking Corp as the most accurate price forecaster said that he is bullish on metals expecting them to rally by mid-2013. He expects copper, nickel and zinc to gain through June and forecasts a 21 percent rise in aluminum. Justin Smirk has attributed the expected rally to China’s economic growth.

Aluminum will advance to $2,380 a metric ton by June because of China’s recovery and central-bank actions in Europe and the U.S., Smirk said. That will boost energy prices, which account for about 40 percent of smelters’ production costs. Nickel


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