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China's GDP would recover from 7.7% in 2H 2012 to 8% YoY in 1H 2013 and 8.5% in 2H 2013, forecasts Deutsche Bank.

12 Feb 2013

FRANKFURT (Commodity Online): China’s crude oil demand in 2013 would rise by around 5% year-on-year on an annual average basis, up from 4% growth in 2012, stated a recent outlook by Frankfurt based Deutsche Bank.

The outlook is based on expectations for a pick up in economic activities in 2013.

China's GDP would recover from 7.7% in 2H 2012 to 8% YoY in 1H 2013 and 8.5% in 2H 2013, forecasts Deutsche Bank.

Indeed, the outlook believes there are upside risks, citing recent positive developments in the US and EU economies that may provide a positive boost to China’s exports.

January PMI points to continued expansion of industrial activities, while strong financing growth, recovery in manufacturing profits and a more expansionary fiscal policy should support domestic demand.

Preliminary data shows China’s oil demand started this year on a strong note. China’s crude oil imports in January averaged 6 mln bbl/day, up 420kbd year on year and 350kbd month on month.

Only twice have crude oil imports exceeded this level Feb 2012 (6.03 mln bbl/day) and May 2012 (6.08 mln bb/day) when China was in the midst of a period of significant oil stockpiling spurred on by escalating risk of supply disruptions notably in Iran and Sudan.

Preliminary data for January also implies that China’s total oil demand (on an apparent calculation basis) rose by over 7% year on year. This strong start follows the robust 9% oil demand growth rate that marked the final quarter of 2012 after generally soft growth in the first three quarters of last year.


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