LONDON (Commodity Online): Chinese vehicle sales rose a staggering 83.6% y-o-y in September, to 1.015 million units, comfortably exceeding US auto sales which slumped after the end to the “cash for clunkers” scheme.

Chinese auto sales have been climbing steadily over the past few years, however sales stepped on again this year on the back of China’s stimulus package. The continued strength of the Chinese auto industry has helped offset some, albeit not all of the weakness in the US and Europe, and has provided a solid backbone for the PGMs both in terms of sentiment and demand.

In terms of demographics, the emergence of a middle class in China was always going to see Chinese auto sales overhaul that of the US. What is surprising is that it has managed to do it in the midst of a recession, highlighting just how differently the two economies are behaving under the current conditions.

In terms of PGM demand, the Chinese auto figures are very significant indeed with the market providing a solid demand base.

With the global auto industry also expected to stabilise and recover over the coming 12-18 months, demand for the PGMs continue to remain solid. We expect this solid demand to lead to a strong price recovery for both platinum and palladium
heading into next year, as restocking by western consumers adds to the Chinese momentum.

Courtesy: Commodities Research, The Standard Bank

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